Raptors vs Grizzlies Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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04 January 2024

Immanuel Quickley bring an element the Raptors have sorely been missing, and one our NBA picks think he can use to his advantage against a tired Grizzlies team tonight.

It’s a matchup of two NBA teams trying to turn their seasons around when the Toronto Raptors visit the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday night.

The new era of Raptors basketball got off on the right foot. RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley both contributed to a win over the Cleveland Cavaliers in their first game with their new team.

Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are trying to right the ship after being without Ja Morant for the first 25 games of the season. But Morant is back and trying to get the Grizz back to the team that won 50-plus games each of the last two seasons.

The NBA odds have Memphis as a slight favorite for this matchup, but the home team could have some tired legs as this will be the second half of a back-to-back following last night’s game against the San Antonio Spurs.

Can Toronto take advantage and will things open up for one of their newly acquired players? I break down the matchup and bring you the bets bet in my NBA picks and predictions for Raptors vs. Grizzlies on January 3.

Raptors vs Grizzlies odds

Raptors vs Grizzlies predictions

The new-look Toronto Raptors won their first game, hanging on for a 124-121 win over the Cleveland Cavaliers as 2.5-point favorites on Monday night, and now will try to make it two in a row when they visit the Memphis Grizzlies tonight.

The newest Raptors RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley both made their presence felt immediately. Barrett put up 19 points on 6-12 shooting while adding nine rebounds. Quickley added 14 points which included going 2-5 from 3-point range and with six rebounds and three assists.

But I think we can see even more from Quickley when it comes to shooting the deep ball moving forward, and in this matchup in particular. Quickley's shooting 39.5% from beyond the arc on 5.4 attempts per game. But I like his chances to up that output playing next to Scottie Barnes, who is excellent at driving and kicking the ball out to open shooters.

The problem is the Raptors have not had great shooters during Barnes' two-plus seasons in Toronto. But Quickley could, um, quickly show what he is capable of in this matchup against the Grizzlies.

For starters, Memphis will be playing its second game in as many nights, following a 106-98 victory over the San Antonio Spurs, where the Grizzlies failed to cover the 11-point chalk. Tonight, they're laying just 1.5 points and will have to be sharp if they want to get the win and cover.

Not having Morant was obviously the Grizzlies' biggest problem early on. The other problem has been their defense. We're used to this being a very good defensive group, but rank a middling 12th in defensive rating.

The Grizz are struggling the most on the perimeter, where they rank 22nd in opponent 3-point attempts per game and 27th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.

Theoretically, the defensive legs are the first thing to go in the second half of a back-to-back. I like Quickley to take advantage of that and show his shooting prowess tonight. He’s shooting 45.6% of three over his last 11 games hitting three or more six times in that span. I’m taking him to go Over 2.5 made threes at nice plus money.

My best bet: Immanuel Quickley Over 2.5 made threes (+140 at PointsBet)

Raptors vs Grizzlies same-game parlay

Immanuel Quickley Over 2.5 made threes

Immanuel Quickly 20+ points

Pascal Siakam Over 6.5 rebounds

Since I’m betting Quickley’s going to have a successful night shooting the ball, let’s look at his points props as well.

Quickley's averaging 15 points per game this season and put up 14 in his first game with his new team. But like I said, I think Quickley has a chance to take the next step and really see an uptick in his production. He's already in a good rhythm shooting the basketball recently and he’s hit the 20-point mark three times in his last seven games. Let’s take him to do it again tonight in better surroundings.

And for the final leg of this SGP, let’s bet on some heavy legs for the Grizzlies. Memphis is playing its second game in as many nights, and when the legs get tired, that’s when you start bricking shots. And as a team, it's not like the Grizz were shooting the ball well anyway, ranking 29th in effective field goal percentage.

Bricks mean rebounds. Pascal Siakam averages 6.5 rebounds per game this season and I like him to put in some work on the glass tonight. I’m taking his Over 6.5 rebounds.

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Raptors vs Grizzlies spread and Over/Under analysis

The Raptors opened this matchup as 1-point road underdogs, but it’s the Grizzlies seeing the very early action as the line has moved to 1.5.

The Grizzlies are at home but are playing the second half of a back-to-back. As noted above, they're not a good shooting team, with the second lowest eFG%, and dead last in 3-point shooting percentage in the NBA.

We saw that in yesterday’s win over the Spurs, putting up just 106 points (luckily the Spurs are much worse) on just 46% shooting, including 12-38 from three. That poor shooting has made the Grizzlies a bad bet, going 13-20 ATS and 0-4 ATS in their last four overall.

On top of that, the Raptors have some confidence after the win over the Cavs. I don’t hate them on the moneyline tonight.

The total opened at 232.5 and the Under has been hit early and often, moving the number down to 229.5 as of Wednesday afternoon.

We talked a lot about the Grizzlies' struggles getting buckets, and I don’t expect this to change against the Raptors. But Toronto isn’t much better at shooting, ranking 19th in effective field goal percentage. And with the Raps and Grizz ranking 17th and 12th respectively in defensive rating, the move makes sense.

But I’m staying away from the total here. Toronto’s defense hasn’t been as good as expected and dare I say the offense looks improved with the roster changes? I’ll need to see this team play a few more games before I start tackling totals again.