Pacers vs Mavericks Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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05 March 2024

Pacers vs Mavericks Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

With Dallas trending towards lower-scoring games at home and Tyrese Haliburton not operating at 100%, Shawn Wronka is targeting the total for tonight's high-stakes showdown in Texas. Read more in our Pacers vs. Mavericks betting picks.

The Indiana Pacers (34-28) are looking to crawl their way out of the play-in tournament, sitting 1.5 games behind the sixth seed. They will travel on Tuesday night to take on the Dallas Mavericks (34-27), who are looking to do the same in the Western Conference standings.

Find out as I dissect the latest NBA odds in our free NBA picks and predictions for Pacers vs. Mavericks on Tuesday, March 6th.

Pacers vs Mavericks odds

Pacers vs Mavericks predictions

This year has been a hellacious season for the mid-tier teams of each conference. Although the Indiana Pacers and Dallas Mavericks currently hold the "lowly" eighth seed, the former are within 2.5 games of fourth and the latter are within two games of fifth.

And as we wind down to the final 20 or so games of the regular season, each game matters that much more. That's why tonight's contest between the two may have a playoff-type atmosphere, bringing the best out of each side.

While their records and place in their respective conferences are nearly identical, the Pacers have the edge in both net rating and offensive rating.

However, the Pacers have not been all themselves as of late. Ever since budding star Tyrese Haliburton rushed back from a hamstring injury in order to meet the 65-game minimum for award considerations, he has averaged just 14.5 points, 8.5 assists, and 2.9 rebounds on 43% shooting from the field.

For comparison, Haliburton had previously averaged 24.6 points, 12.8 assists, and 4.0 rebounds on 50% shooting prior to his injury. As long as Haliburton insists on playing through his debilitating ailment, the Pacers will be overvalued.

Indiana was once one of the league's top teams against the spread, but since his return, the Pacers have gone just 5-9 ATS. Take Dallas to cover at home tonight.

My best bet: Mavericks -4.5 (-115 at BetMGM)

Pacers vs Mavericks same-game parlay

Mavericks -4.5

Under 246.5

Tyrese Haliburton Under 3.5 rebounds

It should come as no surprise that if we can tie the Pacers' woes in the win-loss column and against the spread to Hailburton's diminished play, then we should be able to connect that to their ability to score.

Since his return on January 31st, the Pacers have gone 10-5 to the Under. In fact, they've eclipsed tonight's total of 246.5 just once since February 4th.

Another area where Haliburton has fallen off is with his rebounding, but that should come as no surprise. Given the state of his hamstring, it has made little sense for the guard to spend his energy on the glass, and he has seen low rebounding totals as of late as a result.

Haliburton's rebounding prop tonight is set at 3.5, a mark he has managed to cash just once over his last six starts.

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Pacers vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis

Ever since Haliburton returned to the floor sporting a nagging hamstring, Indiana has gone just 4-9 ATS. The Pacers have also not fared well as moderate-sized underdogs, having gone just 7-12 ATS when listed anywhere from +5 to +7.

Meanwhile, Dallas has gone 8-4 against the spread in its last 12, and have cashed the Under in 56% of their home games. An O/U of 243 seems to be the Mavs' magic number when it comes to totals, because in games with totals higher than that, they have gone a staggering 10-2 to the Under.

Pacers vs Mavericks betting trend to know

On equal rest, the Mavericks have gone 21-15 ATS, good for the fourth-best cover rate in that split. Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Mavericks.

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