Padres pregame: Offense rolling in September ... finally, and perhaps to team's detriment now
The Padres have averaged 6.4 runs per game to start September. They are hitting .295/.353/.530 over their last five games. Shoot, if it wasn’t for Rich Hill being allowed to cough up six runs while recording just four outs on Monday, the Padres could be sitting on a five-game winning streak heading into Wednesday’s finale against the Phillies.
“The last five games our offense has been good,” Padres manager Bob Melvin said Tuesday night. “Ever since the first game against the Giants. Took a little while (on Tuesday), put a crooked number up and then another one. So the offense has been really good here recently. We know we have to be. We have the ability to be and hope we keep rolling.”
Problem is, the Padres are running out of season.
After Wednesday’s 1:10 p.m. start, 21 games will be left in the season.
The Padres (66-74) are eight games under .500, 6½ games out of a wild-card spot and have four teams to leapfrog.
That adds up to a 1.5 percent postseason chance, according to odds at ESPN.
In reality, the Padres winning will hurt them as they’ve been closer to protecting their draft status the last couple weeks than truly forcing their way into postseason talk.
With their luxury tax numbers well above the $253 million second surcharge threshold — $283 million, according to Spotrac — the Padres’ first pick in the 2024 draft will drop by 10 spots unless they finish with one of the majors’ sixth-worst records as those picks are protected under the new collective bargaining agreement.
If their record deems the Padres should pick seventh overall next summer, for instance, their luxury tax penalty pushes that pick to 17 overall. Finish inside the worst six and enter the lottery.
As of Wednesday morning, the Nationals (62-77) had the majors’ six worst records, 4½ games ahead of the Padres, with four teams in between.
Talk about a team that can’t win for losing … or can’t lose for winning … or however you want to look at it.
Either way, at least the Padres who need to be hitting next year are hitting again.
Shortstop Xander Bogaerts has 12 hits in 20 plate appearances this month (1.700 OPS) and four other teammates all have an OPS above .950 to start September:
- RF Fernando Tatis Jr. (1.153 OPS, 3 HRs)
- C Luis Campusano (1.000 OPS)
- LF Juan Soto (.970 OPS, 3 HRs)
- C Gary Sanchez (.967 OPS, 1 HR)
- 3B Manny Machado (.955 OPS, 1 HR).
Machado, however, will DH a sixth straight game as he continues to manage tennis elbow. Whether he plays the field again this season remains to be seen.
“I think each and every day he DHs we gain a little bit of ground with it,” Melvin said Tuesday afternoon.. “I’m not sure if and when he plays third at this point, but last couple of days he’s taken maybe some more aggressive swings and has been driving the ball.”
Here is how the Phillies will line up for the series finale:
Wednesday’s pitching matchup
Phillies RHP Zack Wheeler (10-6, 3.62 ERA)
He allowed three runs in seven innings in a no-decision against the Padres in Philadelphia in July and allowed two runs and a 16-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 13 innings last year in the NLCS. Wheeler has a 2.87 ERA in nine starts since the All-Star break.
Here is how he’s fared against current Padres in the regular season:
Padres RHP Michael Wacha (11-2, 2.85 ERA)
He has a 2.91 ERA in four starts since returning from his shoulder injury on Aug. 15, holding hitters to a .222/.312/.383 batting line over that stretch. Wacha has a 4.98 ERA in 43 1/3 career innings against the Phillies, but he hasn’t faced them since allowing one run in four innings out of bullpen in 2020.
