Padres vs Dodgers Predictions, Picks & Odds

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12 September 2023

Padres vs Dodgers Predictions, Picks & Odds

The San Diego Padres pulled out an 11-8 win against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday and will send Michael Wacha to the mound to pick up another dub. Our MLB picks expect Wacha to have his way with this L.A. lineup.

The San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers square off Tuesday, a night removed from the 11-8 barn-burner victory San Diego picked up. That outcome marked just the second time in the last 10 matchups L.A. lost to its state rival.

A pair of former St. Louis Cardinals teammates will be featured on Tuesday as Michael Wacha starts for San Diego while Lance Lynn gets the nod for Los Angeles. MLB odds are favoring the home side to knot up the series, with L.A. sitting at around -155.

Find out which one of those starters I’m eyeing in my full MLB picks and predictions for the Padres vs. Dodgers on Tuesday, September 12.

Padres vs Dodgers odds

Padres vs Dodgers predictions

I’m going to take a closer look at San Diego Padres starting pitcher Michael Wacha for Tuesday's best bet.

The veteran hurler spent a month and a half on the shelf with shoulder inflammation, missing nearly all of July and half of August. He’s allowed just 10 earned runs across five complete starts since returning to the mound on August 15, more than effective numbers.

The 32-year-old has been a nice storyline overall this season as his 2.99 ERA is the lowest it's been since his rookie year back in 2013. Wacha is limiting the home run ball (just 0.97 HR/9 despite a 43.8% FB%) and is also striking out a decent amount of batters. His 22.3% K-rate is up two percentage points from last season while his 10.2% swinging strike rate is the third highest since 2015.

The RHP has been keeping hitters off balance since returning to the mound on August 15, notching at least five Ks in each of his five starts. I’m therefore intrigued that books have set his strikeout prop at 4.5 with plus money available on the Over.

Wacha has seen a full workload lately, tossing at least 94 pitches in each of his last four outings. That means we can expect to see him for a while on Tuesday night even if he struggles against this potent Dodgers offense. Los Angeles may be dangerous, but its 21.5% K-rate on the season is nothing out of the ordinary.

With the wind blowing out at 9.2 mph to right field and Wacha being a fly ball pitcher, I expect his approach to involve throwing around contact. It’s a game plan that has been mostly successful for him this season, especially since returning from the IL, so I see no reason why it would change here.

Wacha has gone Over 4.5 strikeouts in each of his last five starts and in eight of his last 10. I’ll bet on him exceeding that total yet again on Tuesday.

My best bet: Michael Wacha Over 4.5 strikeouts

Padres vs Dodgers same-game parlay

Wacha Over 4.5 Ks

Wacha Over 1.5 walks

Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 TB

This three-leg SGP is centered around my best bet on Wacha going Over his strikeout prop of 4.5. Since I expect him to pitch around contact against a dangerous lineup, I’ll also add him to exceed his walk prop of 1.5.

The Dodgers have a 10% BB rate against right-handed pitching since the start of September, and Wacha’s 3.07 BB/9 leaves a bit to be desired, so it wouldn’t be at all surprising for him to exceed this total considering he’s issued 10 walks in his last three starts and has averaged 2.4 walks over his last 10 appearances.

The final leg will be Fernando Tatis Jr. to go Over 1.5 bases for plus money in order to bring the final SGP odds to +120. He gets a juicy matchup against Lane Lynn, who has struggled mightily lately by surrendering 15 combined earned runs across his last two starts. Tatis is priced down after a mini slump in which he’s recorded just one hit in his last 19 ABs, but this is a perfect buy-low opportunity in a fantastic matchup.

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Padres vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Los Angeles Dodgers are currently favored from as low as -155 to as high as -170 while the best comeback on San Diego is +140, and the total is set at 9.5 across the board.

Wacha’s a fly-ball pitcher (43.8%) who has had great success keeping the ball in the yard, surrendering just an 8.7% HR/FB ratio. He’s been in fine form lately but does get a tough test in the Dodgers, who he has not faced yet this season.

Los Angeles counters with Lance Lynn on the mound. It’s been a struggle for the veteran this season as evidenced by his 6.09 ERA across his time with both the Chicago White Sox and the Dodgers this season. It looked like he had pieced everything together when he allowed just a single earned run across three starts (18 IP) in early August, but low and behold he’s since unraveled by allowing 15 earned runs in his last two outings.

Lynn faced the Padres on August 6 and was very effective, surrendering just a single earned run on four hits and two walks while striking out six batters across six innings of work.

I’m not sure Lynn is in the Dodgers’ postseason plans and he’s basically just a regular season innings eater at this point who is struggling to even fill that role. I cannot play the Dodgers at the current price with this starting pitching matchup and have a slight lean toward the underdog.

The current forecast is calling for a temperature of 74 degrees with the wind blowing out to right field at 9.2 mph.

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Trend to know

Wacha has gone Over 4.5 strikeouts in five straight starts and in eight of his last 10. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs Dodgers

Padres vs Dodgers game info

Starting pitchers

Michael Wacha (11-3, 2.99 ERA): It’s been a nice little career resurgence for the 32-year-old, who has posted his lowest ERA since his rookie campaign back in 2013 with the St. Louis Cardinals. The advanced numbers don’t really like his game, however, as his 4.53 xERA and 3.04 FIP are more in line with prior years than his actual ERA.

Lance Lynn (10-11, 6.09 ERA): It has not been the smoothest season for L.A.’s mid-season acquisition, who has the highest ERA of his career. His 4.88 xERA is more manageable, although his 5.57 FIP is not. He still strikes out a ton of batters (24.3% K-rate) but his BB rate is up to 7.9%, the highest it’s been since 2018.