Pelicans vs Kings prediction: NBA In-Season Tournament picks

The bracket for the NBA In-Season Tournament has been set, and now we get single-elimination professional basketball games this week. Win-or-go-home situations tend to lead to the best form of basketball, as we have learned with the NBA Play-In Tournament in recent years.

That’s what the NBA is hoping for anyway, as the league created this midseason tourney to spark interest in the early months of the regular season. The quarterfinal round will begin on Monday, with the winners earning a trip to Las Vegas later in the week for the semifinals and championship. The losers will play each other in a regular-season game in a few days.

Despite some health issues to begin the season, the New Orleans Pelicans (11-10) were one of the four Western Conference teams to make the quarterfinals. They will travel to face the Sacramento Kings (11-7) for Monday’s matchup.

Fortunately for the Pels, they are getting more healthy heading into this event. CJ McCollum and Trey Murphy III are expected to return to action for the showdown in Sacramento.

These two teams played each other in a two-game stretch in New Orleans in November. The Pelicans won both meetings, earning a 129-93 victory on Nov. 20 and a 117-112 win on Nov. 22. New Orleans was a short favorite in both contests.

Caesars Sportsbook, the official odds partner of Bet.NOLA.com, is giving the edge to the Kings this time around with the contest out west this time. They are listed as 4-point favorites with an over/under of 237.

Let’s take a closer look at the odds and trends:

New Orleans Pelicans atSacramento Kings

Time/TV: 9 p.m. CT (TNT)

Point spread (from Caesars): Sacramento -4

Over/under: 237

Moneyline: Sacramento -160, New Orleans +135

Analysis: Both teams have been profitable to bettors in their own way this year. New Orleans is 12-8-1 against the spread but has had 12 of its 21 games finish under the closing point total. Sacramento has a 10-8 ATS clip with a 10-8 record to the over.

In the previous two head-to-head meetings, the Pelicans covered as short favorites and the total finish under. There is an argument that the winner of this game will dictate the tempo, but the stakes of this matchup are too high to mess with a point spread or total for this game.

Instead, consider the over on Jonas Valanciunas’ points prop for this matchup. He has an over/under of 12.5 points against the Kings, despite a projection closer to 16 points on our end. The New Orleans center ranks 88th in the league in scoring with an average of 14 points per game, while also grabbing nine rebounds per contest.

Valanciunas comes into this matchup with great form, clearing this points prop in four consecutive games. He is averaging 18 points per contest over that span, recording double-digit shot attempts in three of those four outings. He scored 15 points on 6-of-9 shooting against the Kings last time out.

Players on both sides will be plenty motivated to win this game, but Valanciunas is in the best position to cash this low prop. 

Best bet: Over 12.5 points for Jonas Valanciunas (-103 via Caesars)