Penn State vs. Purdue predictions: can Nittany Lions keep up with Boilermakers?

The Big Ten-leading Boilermakers host the Nittany Lions Wednesday night in West Lafayette, and we’re here to make our Penn State vs. Purdue predictions.

It’s virtually impossible to stop Purdue’s Zach Edey, the runaway favorite for National Player of the Year. However, Penn State has point guard Jalen Pickett, a likely All-American.

But despite both teams having a superstar, one team is 21-1 overall while the other is 5-5 in league play.

Therefore, Purdue is a double-digit home favorite Wednesday night.

Is that too many points?

Spread: Penn State +10 (-110) vs. Purdue -10 (-110)

Moneyline: Penn State (+400) vs. Purdue (-550)

Total: Over 135.5 (-110) | Under 135.5 (-110)

Penn State Nittany Lions +10 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

For a few reasons, a 10-point spread is too high for Penn State Wednesday night.

First, I expect a slower-paced game. Per KenPom, Penn State ranks 10th in the Big Ten in tempo, while Purdue is dead last in 14th. With extra time drained off the clock on every possession, it becomes hard for a big favorite to cover.

Second, Purdue is in a typical look-ahead spot. The Boilermakers are on the back end of a two-game homestand with a trip to Bloomington to face Indiana on Saturday. I expect to catch the Boilermakers sleepy here, especially after handling Penn State with ease earlier this season.

Third, Penn State’s Micah Shrewsberry is an elite game planner as a coach. The Nittany Lions are 7-2 against the spread (ATS) against ranked teams this season, per Team Rankings, emphasizing Shrewsberry’s ability to game-plan against top-tier opponents.

For example, we saw Shrewsberry mix up his frontcourt rotations against Michigan last Sunday, and the new lineup held big man Hunter Dickinson to just six points in 23 minutes on 3-for-9 shooting.

The worry for Penn State is its post defense, which ranks dead last in the Big Ten in points per possession allowed, per ShotQuality. Edey is bound to dominate in that type of matchup.

However, Purdue’s biggest issue defensively is against catch-and-shoot 3-point shots, which is Penn State’s bread-and-butter. The Lions will run pick-and-roll, and then Pickett will find open shooters when backing down defenders in the post.

So, ultimately, I expect the Lions to give up plenty of 2-point shots but make plenty of 3-point shots. While that’s not always the best strategy, it works OK for double-digit underdogs, given the extra variance inserted into the game.

Finally, Purdue is still super overvalued. I’d make this line closer to Purdue -6.5, and I will happily play Penn State +10.5 (-110) available at Caesars Sportsbook.