Penn State vs. Texas A&M Predictions, Odds & Picks: Under-seeded Aggies a Popular Pick

The Penn State Nittany Lions very nearly won the Big Ten championship, and their reward for such an effort is a first-round matchup against the SEC runner-up, Texas A&M Aggies. Here are the best Penn State vs. Texas A&M college basketball picks based on the top NCAAB odds.

The Nittany Lions closed out the season exactly the way they needed to. They won five in a row before falling to the Purdue Boilermakers 67-65 in the Big Ten title game. The last eight Nittany Lions’ games have been decided by four points or less, whether they win or lose.

Meanwhile, the Aggies could be the most wrongly seeded team in the tournament. Many were projecting them on the five-line, and instead, they were relegated to a seven-seed with a very tough first-round matchup. Prior to their loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide, the Aggies had won four in a row, including their regular season finale against that same Crimson Tide team.

Here is our best Penn State vs. Texas A&M college basketball pick (odds via Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Penn State vs. Texas A&M odds

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As is often the case, a team that is criminally under- or over-seeded by the committee tends to receive a lot of publicity pre-tournament. This publicity tends to result in a lot of public interest in that team, even if the interest is not always indicative of the final result.

That’s the situation with the Aggies this year. They’re under-seeded, and because they are, they are seeing a lot of love not just to beat Penn State but also to take down the Texas Longhorns in the next round. And while the Aggies are good, they’re running into a Penn State team that has been involved in nothing but close games of late.

The Aggies’ defense is very good at forcing turnovers, with their opponents averaging 14.2 per game. That’s the 63rd-best mark in the nation. But the Nittany Lions are the fourth-best team in terms of turnovers per game, giving the ball away only nine times per game.

The Nittany Lions are a fundamentally sound team that is going to be able to match whatever the Aggies throw at them. The only reason this isn’t a four-star play is there is the chance that the Nittany Lions are exhausted from their late run, and they're out of steam for this one. But as we see it, this game is much more of a toss-up than the line suggests.

Penn State vs. Texas A&M best odds

Caesars (-110)

The Aggies opened as 2.5-point favorites, but the line has moved in their favor since that point. The only major sportsbook that hasn’t shifted the line is FanDuel, and based on the juice they’re offering for Texas A&M, it’s just a matter of time before the spread changes.

However, BetMGM and Caesars are even further ahead of the curve with each sportsbook offering Penn State at +3.5. With the price set at -110 at both books, either one is a good option for this wager.

Penn State vs. Texas A&M odds analysis

The public really likes the Aggies in this one, with 60% of bets backing the Aggies to cover the spread, even as the spread continues to swell. With how much discussion there was about the Aggies being perhaps two seed lines too low, expect the public to continue backing them and this spread to continue to grow.

As for the total, the number opened at 134.5, and it has stayed there since. Roughly 56% of bettors are backing the Over, but there hasn’t been enough support yet to force any of the sportsbooks to change this number.

Penn State vs. Texas A&M game info

• Date: Thursday, March 16, 9:55 PM
• TV: TBS
• Location: Wells Fargo Arena, Des Moines, IA

Penn State vs. Texas A&M pick made 3/14/2023 at 12:38 p.m. ET.

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