Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks, Predictions, Odds 2023: Rahm, McIlroy, Scheffler Lead Elevated Field
Scottie Scheffler will aim to defend his 2022 title at this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club & Lodge, but he'll need to do it against an incredibly strong field. Read on as we offer our top Arnold Palmer Invitational picks and predictions based on the best golf odds.
Scheffler will look to mirror his success of a year ago in winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational just a few weeks after claiming victory in the WM Phoenix Open. To do so, he'll need to take down a field that once again includes Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, and the rest of the PGA Tour's best golfers.
Rahm returned to No. 1 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) with his victory at The Genesis Invitational two weeks ago. That was a position briefly held by Scheffler following the Phoenix Open. McIlroy was in the pole position to begin the 2023 calendar year after reclaiming the top spot with his win in the fall's CJ Cup.
Check out our top Arnold Palmer Invitational picks and predictions as we preview the tournament and assess the odds from our best sportsbooks.
Arnold Palmer Invitational picks
- Rory McIlroy (+1000 via BetMGM)
- Will Zalatoris (+2200 via BetMGM)
- Sam Burns (+5000 via DraftKings)
Arnold Palmer Invitational odds 2023
Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge course profile
Par: 72
Length: 7,466 yards
Greens: Bermuda
Architect: Dick Wilson (renovations by Arnold Palmer)
The primary defense of Bay Hill Club & Lodge is water hazards, as golf fans and bettors witnessed last week at PGA National. Water is a principal hazard on nine holes. Those often came into play last year with strong winds and firm terrain. The average score in the final round each of the past two years was over 75 as an indication of how difficult this course can be tailored to play. Scheffler's winning 72-hole score of minus-5 last year was the second in three years but also just the second since 2011 to be worse than 10-under par.
While much of the course is relatively flat, many of the greens are heavily sloped and require elite iron play on approach to the putting surfaces. Bunkers guard most greens and landing spots in fairways that aren't already protected by water.
As one would expect given the difficult conditions and the high winning score last year, only four holes played below par for the tournament. Predictably, those were each of the four par 5s which combined to yield 42 eagles. The par 5s range from 511 to 590 yards, while the par 3s range from 199 to 231 yards with only one ace scored last year. The most common range among the 10 par 4s is 450-500 yards with five such holes.
Arnold Palmer Invitational key stats
- Strokes gained: approach
- SG: off-the-tee
- SG: tee-to-green
- Proximity: 175-200 yards
- Bogey avoidance
- Par-5 scoring
Bay Hill is a ball strikers' course that requires distance and accuracy off the tee, as well as precise iron play. Scoring needs to be done on the four par 5s, and avoiding bogey (or worse) everywhere else is the main goal.
The key range to target for approach shots is from 175-200 yards based on the average landing spots and layups in the fairways. Putting on fast Bermuda greens can also be considered but keep in mind that success with the putter is highly volatile from week to week and we're only one event into the Florida swing and these putting surfaces in 2023.
Course history and success on comparable courses, including TPC Scottsdale, TPC Boston, and PGA National, can also be considered. The elite field for this event and those that typically play at those venues need to be taken into account.
Arnold Palmer Invitational picks and predictions
Rory McIlroy (+1000 via BetMGM)
If the PGA Tour's first two elevated events of 2023 — the WM Phoenix Open and The Genesis Invitational — taught us anything, it's that the top names are showing up to win these events. With that in mind, we need to avoid chasing big numbers and take the outlier odds our best sportsbooks are giving us when we can.
The +1000 odds available via BetMGM for McIlroy to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational are still a deal relative to the +900 available elsewhere. He's a former champion of this event and had five straight top-10 finishes at Bay Hill before last year's T-13 showing. Those who've watched Netflix's Full Swing also would've seen how much winning the PGA Tour's marquee events means to the Northern Irishman. Expect a similar performance to the 2022 Tour Championship in honor of Mr. Palmer.
Statistically, McIlroy has averaged 2.64 true strokes gained on the field per round across 32 career laps of Bay Hill. He's ninth on the PGA Tour for the 2022-23 season in SG: approach, 10th in SG: off-the-tee, first in SG: tee-to-green, ninth in proximity from 175-200 yards, and fifth in par-5 scoring.
Will Zalatoris (+2200 via BetMGM)
We saw Zalatoris priced as high as +4000 to win The Genesis Invitational just two weeks ago while questions continued to swirl regarding the back injury that forced him to withdraw from the 2022 FedEx Cup Playoffs. A fourth-place finish in an elevated field by the seventh-ranked golfer in the world has clearly dispelled some of those concerns.
Now, Zalatoris is priced with much more conservative odds for the Arnold Palmer Invitational and is among our top picks to win once again. The 26-year-old California debuted at Bay Hill with a T-10 finish in this event in 2021 before a weather-derailed T-38 finish last year (final round of plus-7, 79).
Zalatoris is gaining strokes in every key metric early in the 2022-23 PGA Tour season. He's sixth in SG: off-the-tee and 22nd in SG: tee-to-green per round, as well as eighth in bogey avoidance and fourth in par-5 scoring average. The +2200 odds are the best that are available as of Monday afternoon, but there's a chance this number could rise by Thursday morning with Rahm, McIlroy, and Scheffler likely to command the bulk of the public betting handle once again.
Sam Burns (+5000 via DraftKings)
It's definitely risky targeting anyone with odds this high this week but the number doesn't match the golfer in this case. Burns, the 14th-ranked golfer in the world, had a career-best T-9 finish in the Arnold Palmer Invitational last year. That followed a missed cut in 2021 after making it to the weekend in each of his first three appearances at Bay Hill.
Though Burns missed the cut in The Genesis Invitational, he tied for sixth in the WM Phoenix Open the week prior against essentially the same field. That followed a quality T-11 finish in The American Express.
Burns averaged 0.94 true strokes gained: approach in this event last year, to go with 1.49 SG: putting per round. I like that familiarity and his success on the greens to help counteract some uncharacteristically lackluster play off the tee so far this season.
Arnold Palmer Invitational info
When: Thursday, March 2 - Sunday, March 5
Where: Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge, Orlando, FL
How to watch: Golf Channel, NBC
Recent Arnold Palmer Invitational winners
How to watch the Arnold Palmer Invitational
The Arnold Palmer Invitational will be broadcasted on Golf Channel and NBC, with PGA Tour Live on ESPN+ streaming exclusive early-round and featured group coverage.
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