Philadelphia Phillies at Houston Astros odds, picks and predictions

The Philadelphia Phillies (15-13) and Houston Astros (14-13) close out a 3-game set at Minute Maid Park on Sunday Night Baseball. First pitch is at 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 2-0

The Phillies came into Houston and rode their co-aces Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler to 3-1 and 6-1 wins Friday and Saturday. They’ve won 8 of 10 to claw back within 3 1/2 games in the NL East division.

Houston has struggled at home at just 6-9 on the year. They Astros are just treading water — they’re 6-4 in the last 10 games — while 2B Jose Altuve (thumb) rehabs from a broken thumb. Part of the problem is their offense has yet to get started at 16th with 4.60 runs/9. Houston has scored just 1 run in each of last 3 games.

Phillies at Astros projected starters

LHP Bailey Falter vs. RHP Jose Urquidy

Falter (0-4, 4.50 ERA) makes his 6th start this season. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 in 28 IP.

• Last start vs. Seattle Mariners Tuesday: 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 7 K
• 1 career appearance vs. Houston: 1 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 0 K

Urquidy (1-2, 5.64 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.75 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 22 1/3 IP.

• Last start Monday vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 2 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 K
• Has never faced Phillies
• Is 3-1 with a 3.13 ERA, 1.24 WHIP in 9 career interleague games (8 starts

Phillies at Astros odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:34 a.m. ET.

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Phillies at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 5, Phillies 3

Houston will avoid the sweep as long as Urquidy can straighten it out. He has allowed 10 ER over 7 IP in his last 2 starts. Because of that, I’m going to pass on the -150 ML and head to the Win/Total section. Under Moneyline and Both Teams to Score 2 or More Runs, take ASTROS AND YES +135.

The Astros boast the 6th-best bullpen ERA at 3.09. Philadelphia is 24th at 4.59. Even if Urquidy gives up 4 or 5 again, I still like Houston’s chances against Philadelphia’s pen. The Phillies benefitted from 8 shutout innings from Nola and 6 shutout innings from Wheeler. That won’t be the case Sunday.

Take the ASTROS -1.5 (+135).

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It’s 84 degrees with an 8-mph wind blowing out to right-center. Both teams have been Under teams as Philadelphia is 2-8 O/U, and Houston is 3-6-1 O/U over the last 10 games. Houston has cashed 4 Unders in a row. The Under is 6-0-1 in the last 7 between the teams and 3-0-1 in Houston.

Take the UNDER 9 (-120).

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