Phillies vs Astros Prediction, Picks, Odds

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30 April 2023

Phillies vs Astros Prediction, Picks, Odds

Houston is looking to avoid another home loss at the hands of Philadelphia as both teams take the stage in SNB action. With the lights shining bright, our MLB picks are betting on Yordan Alvarez to destroy Falter.

The Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies will lock horns on Sunday Night to finish up a three-game series.

Philly took the first two games of the series with wins that came pretty convincing. Houston has been just steady as of late. They are .500 over their last four games and have won six of their previous ten. The Phillies' post-World Series campaign has also been stagnant. While they have won four straight games, they come into this one just two games over .500.

What's the best bet for this matchup? Find out in our MLB picks for Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros.

Phillies vs Astros odds

Phillies vs Astros predictions

My favorite play in this game is finding ways to target Bailey Falter. He's had significant issues with hard-hit balls this season, and that's not a problem you want to have when you see a team like the Houston Astros. So with that in mind, why not target their best power hitter and star player Yordan Alvarez?

Today, Alvarez Over 1.5 bases is our best bet. It's a little juicy but for good reason. Alvarez has gone Over 1.5 bases in three of his last four games and gets a favorable matchup today.

Everything improves when Alvarez gets a left-handed pitcher on the mound like the one he's got today. Historically the numbers show consistent improvement, just as this season has. His isolated power jumps from .255 against righties to .322 against lefties, and his overall batting average goes from .216 to an eye-popping .357.

Alvarez is also a deadly fastball hitter. That is Falter's preferred pitch, but given how good Alvarez is against the fastball, he likely sees few competitive ones. Therein lies the problem, though. Some of Falter's struggles have been tied to him escaping his fastball. He doesn't trust many of his other pitches, but he tends to lean on the changeup. Even that has let him down, though, as batters have hit .300 against it and posted an impressive hard-hit rate.

That brings us to why we like this matchup so much, Alvarez has crushed changeups. This season he's slugged .625 against them and posted the highest run value on his team. Last season he batted .343 against them and once again led his team with the highest run value at +8. Whether it's Falter giving in on the fastball and him leaning on his changeup, Alvarez is set to rake today. Given his hard-hitting prowess, I'll sprinkle him to hit a home run at +300, but this is the best option.

My best bet: Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 total bases (-110)

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Phillies vs Astros moneyline analysis

You have to like the Astros in this spot.

There are a ton of situational aspects that favor them. Forget some of the specifics surrounding the talent deficiencies for the Phillies (and I believe overall that Houston is simply more talented) and look at it from a different perspective.

The Astros have lost the first two games of this series and are new to being swept in many home series. In addition, their starting pitcher Jose Urquidy has gotten off to a historically bad start, and he's coming off his worst performance of the season — so you have to like him to bounce back here.

The best price I see as of publication is -145 at DraftKings, and that's too steep for me. With that said, I like this matchup for Houston, and if it ticks down to the -135 range, I'll be interested.

Phillies vs Astros Over/Under analysis

I don't have much of an opinion on the total. I priced it at 8.5, and that's where the market has priced it.

Once again, given some of the previously mentioned situational aspects, I'd be looking to target the Astros team total Over. You can find it at 4.5 at -115 on bet365, and if I were looking aside here, it would be there. The Houston offense has struggled some lately, but it's simply too good to continue doing so for too long. Today, it has a dream matchup and is primed to break out.

With that in mind, some massive Under trends shouldn't be ignored. First, the Under is 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings between these two teams. Second, the Under is 3-0-1 in the previous four meetings in Houston. Third, the Under is 4-0 in the Astros' last four games. I'm breaking the mould of some of those trends with the Astros Over here, but I wouldn't do it on the entire game total.

Phillies vs Astros game info

Phillies vs Astros betting preview

Starting pitchers

Bailey Falter (0-4, 4.50 ERA): Falter has been precisely what you'd expect him to be based on the quality of pitches he's thrown this season. The primary issue has been the hard-hit ball. He's comfortably below league average in hard-hit rate and in the Bottom 25% of baseball in barrel rate. All three of his significant pitches have yielded an opponent batting average of over .250. Still, teams have keyed on the changeup. Whether it's sequencing or that pitch is a rough one for him, opponents have slugged .400 against it, batted .320 against it, and posted a hard-hit rate of 55%.

Jose Urquidy (1-2, 5.64 ERA): It's been a rough season for Urquidy. He's likely been slightly unlucky, but even still, he hasn't been good. Like his counterpart at the mound, he's struggled to avoid barrels. He ranks in the Bottom 30% of baseball, which is slightly better than Falter. Urquidy enters this game off his worst start of the season. He was blasted and gave up six earned runs in just over two innings to the Tampa Bay Rays.