Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks & predictions

The Philadelphia Phillies (55-47) begin a 3-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates (45-57) on Friday at PNC Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Phillies were 6-1 vs. the Pirates in 2022

The Phillies defeated the Baltimore Orioles 6-4 on Wednesday to give them 2 consecutive wins. Philadelphia is 10 games behind the Atlanta Braves for 1st place in the NL East, but is currently 1 of the 3 NL Wild-Card teams.

The Pirates beat the San Diego Padres 3-2 on Wednesday. Pittsburgh has alternated wins and losses in its last week and it sits in last place in the NL Central.

Phillies at Pirates projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Mitch Keller

Wheeler (7-5, 3.88 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 in 118 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 8 K in a 1-0 road loss to the Cleveland Guardians on Saturday
• 2023 road stats: 5-3 in 10 starts with a 3.72 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 in 58 IP
• Career stats vs. Pirates: 3-0 in 5 starts with a 2.30 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 9.8 K/9 in 31 1/3 IP

Keller (9-6, 4.01 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 128 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 6 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 7 K in a 7-5 road loss against the Los Angeles Angels on Saturday
• 2023 home stats: 5-2 in 9 starts with a 3.61 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 in 57 1/3 IP
• Career vs. Phillies: 0-2 in 3 starts with a 7.80 ERA, 1.87 WHIP, and 7.8 K/9 in 15 IP

Phillies at Pirates odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:22 a.m. ET.

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Phillies at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Pirates 3

With these teams having different outlooks on the playoffs, I’ll side with the PHILLIES (-160) on the road Friday. Philadelphia has won 27 of its last 42 games, and it has won 8 of the last 10 meetings overall.

PHILLIES -1.5 (+105) has solid value as the Pirates are looking to be sellers at the trade deadline. The Pirates have lost by multiple runs in 8 consecutive losses and Keller has struggled in recent starts.

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UNDER 8.5 (-115) is the lean. Wheeler shouldn’t have much trouble shutting down a Pirates squad that owns the 4th-worst wOBA (.286) and wRC+ (77) against right-handed pitching since the start of July.

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