2023 MLB playoffs: Phillies vs. Diamondbacks odds, time, line, NLCS Game 4 picks, predictions by proven model
The 2023 National League Championship Series continues with Game 4 on Friday evening. The Philadelphia Phillies lead the Arizona Diamondbacks by a 2-1 margin in the best-of-seven series. Arizona won Game 3 in walk-off fashion on Thursday, avoiding a 3-0 hole with a memorable victory. The Phillies look to take a commanding 3-1 lead in this 2023 MLB playoffs series behind Cristopher Sanchez, with the Diamondbacks starting Game 4 with Joe Mantiply on the mound.
First pitch is at 8:07 p.m. ET in Phoenix. For this game, SportsLine consensus lists Philadelphia as a -134 favorite (risk $134 to win $100) on the money line, while the over/under, or total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, is 9.5 in the latest Phillies vs. Diamondbacks odds. Before locking in any Diamondbacks vs. Phillies picks, be sure to .
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It went 331-285 on top-rated MLB money-line picks (+357) over the past two seasons. It entered the NLCS and ALCS of the 2023 MLB playoffs 93-74 on all top-rated MLB picks this season and has excelled on top-rated run-line picks, going 18-6 (+766). Anybody following has seen big returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Phillies vs. Diamondbacks and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several MLB betting lines and trends for Diamondbacks vs. Phillies:
- Phillies vs. Diamondbacks money line: Phillies -134, DBacks +114
- Phillies vs. Diamondbacks over/under: 9.5 runs
- Phillies vs. Diamondbacks run line: Phillies -1.5 (+120)
- Philadelphia: The Phillies are 42-41 in road games this year
- Arizona: The Diamondbacks are 45-38 in home games this year
- Phillies vs. Diamondbacks picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why you should back the Phillies
Philadelphia has the best offense in the playoffs, but the Phillies are also pitching at a high level. Phillies relievers have a 1.63 ERA in 27.2 innings of work, allowing only one home run in the postseason. That comes after a regular season in which the high-wattage bullpen was near the top of the NL in ERA (3.58), batting average allowed (.232), and walks allowed (217). Philadelphia also projects to have an edge at starting pitcher behind Sanchez. He posted a 3.44 ERA in 19 outings during the regular season, generating 6.00 strikeouts for every walk and issuing only 1.4 walks per nine innings. Sanchez also had a 2.08 ERA in road outings in 2023.
Philadelphia's offense is also red-hot with 47 runs in nine games in the 2023 MLB playoffs and an MLB-leading .883 OPS. The Phillies have 19 home runs and 20 doubles in nine games, and Philadelphia is also leading the playoffs with 11 stolen bases. That comes after a regular season in which Philadelphia was in the top three of the National League in home runs, stolen bases, slugging percentage, OPS, and total bases. See which team to back here.
Why you should back the Diamondbacks
Arizona is facing a first-time playoff starter in Sanchez, and he has allowed five earned runs in only 1.2 career innings against the Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks showcased their team speed and athleticism in Game 3, and Arizona was in the top two of the NL with 144 triples and 166 stolen bases this season. Ketel Marte produced the walk-off hit in the Game 3 win, and he has six extra-base hits in eight playoff games. Marte is also hitting .371 in the playoffs, with a stellar .657 slugging percentage to boot.
He is joined by breakout star Corbin Carroll, who became the first rookie in MLB history with at least 25 home runs and 50 stolen bases in a season. Carroll has a .286/.412/.536 slash line in playoff action, with six stolen bases and two home runs. Arizona will be heavily reliant on its bullpen in Game 4, but Diamondbacks relievers have combined for a 3.41 ERA in the playoffs with 27 strikeouts in 29 innings of work through three series. See which team to back here.
How to make Diamondbacks vs. Phillies picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 9.1 combined runs. It also says one side on the money line has all the value. You can only get the model's MLB picks at SportsLine.
