Phillies-Blue Jays prediction: Picks, odds on Wednesday, August 16

On Tuesday, the Toronto Blue Jays (67-54) came from behind to pick up a win over the Philadelphia Phillies (65-55). They’ll look to finish off the sweep of the quick two-game series with a win on Wednesday when they send Kevin Gausman (9-6, 3.04 ERA) to the mound against Aaron Nola (9-8, 4.49 ERA). First pitch is set for 7:07 p.m. ET.

The Blue Jays are -148 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Phillies are +124 underdogs. The total is set at 8.

Phillies-Blue Jays picks: Wednesday, August 16

Injury report

Phillies

Out: OF Cristian Pache (right elbow inflammation), RP Jose Alvarado (left elbow inflammation), OF Brandon Marsh (bruised knee)

Blue Jays

RP Hagen Danner (left oblique strain), RP Trevor Richards (neck inflammation), SS Bo Bitchette (right patellar tendinitis), CF Kevin Kiermaier (right elbow laceration)

Starting pitchers

Aaron Nola vs. Kevin Gausman

After tallying a 3.26 ERA from June 22 to July 23, Nola has stumbled as of late, and has a 6.60 ERA over his three starts -- a streak in which he allowed five runs in two of those three starts. Nola is 1-2 with a 4.94 ERA in five career starts against the Blue Jays, and has allowed at least three runs in six of his last eight starts.

Gausman enters Wednesday’s start leading all of baseball in FIP (2.72), along with leading the AL in strikeouts per nine innings (11.8) and strikeouts (183). He threw a gem his last time out against the Guardians, tossing seven shutout innings with six strikeouts in a 1-0 win. Gausman has a 3.70 ERA in eight career games against the Phillies, and ranks in the 95th percentile in strikeout rate and the 84th percentile in walk rate.

Over/Under pick

I’m going to back the over, just because this feels like a breakout game for the Phillies. They’ve only tallied two runs over their last three games, but have four hitters in their lineup with .300 or better batting averages against Gausman. The Jays should get theirs against Nola, but I think the Phillies offense will be able to get to Gausman.

Pick: Over 8

Moneyline pick

In fact, I think they’ll get to Gausman so much they’ll pick up the win. As mentioned above, the Phillies boast a lineup that’s had success against Gausman in the past, which should lead to an upset.