Blue Jays vs Guardians Prediction, Picks, Odds

Toronto is fresh off of sweeping the BoSox at Fenway and will look to carry that momentum into Cleveland. With neither team sending out an ace, our MLB picks are riding the Over for this Game 1 tilt.

Being a Toronto Blue Jays fan must be an irritating existence at this point. A few days ago, the sky was falling as the Blue Jays lost yet another series to the Baltimore Orioles. Then they had to head to Fenway Park to take on a Boston Red Sox team they were 0-7 against this season. And of course, Toronto swept away the BoSox.

Baseball, right?

Now the Jays will try to carry that momentum over into a four-game set against the Cleveland Guardians who are trying to track down the Minnesota Twins in the American League Central.

Will the legend of Davis “Babe” Schneider grow as Toronto tries to win its fourth straight game, or does Cleveland have value as a home underdog?

I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best bet in MLB picks and predictions for the Blue Jays vs. Guardians.

Blue Jays vs Guardians odds

Blue Jays vs Guardians predictions

For those who don’t know the legend of Davis Schnieder, let me break it down for you.

After losing three out of four at home in a pivotal series against the Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays' management decided to shake things up. That started with calling up Schnieder. Since then, he's tied tie a major league record with nine hits — including two dingers — over his first three big league games and is now known as “Babe” Schnieder in the Jays’ locker room.

Simply put, Schnieder’s presence and performance looks like it has rejuvenated a Toronto lineup that was not living up to expectations to this point. 

Now, the Jays try to carry that momentum over into tonight’s matchup vs. Cleveland Guardians’ rookie Gavin Williams. The 24-year-old was Cleveland's top pitching prospect and his first foray into the big leagues has gone fairly well.

The RHP is pitching to a 3.38 ERA over his first eight starts, but there could be some regression in his future. Williams has an expected ERA sitting more than a run higher at 4.53 and his .259 expected batting average ranks in the 26th percentile. His strikeout-to-walk rate of 1.76 could do for some improvement as well.

And while the Blue Jays have had issues coming up with that clutch hit, overall they rank sixth in batting average, 11th in OPS, and eighth in wRC+. Giving them extra chances might not be a good thing.

Countering Williams is veteran Hyun-Jin Ryu. The lefty is making just his second start since returning from Tommy John surgery. The first went, well... Ryu allowed four runs on nine hits while striking out three over five innings against the Orioles. 

So, even a light-hitting team like the Guardians should be able to put up some runs. And to Cleveland’s credit, the team has been a little better at the dish in the second half — ranking 14th in batting average, 18th in OPS, and 17th in wRC+.

The total for this matchup feels a touch too low so I’m taking the Over 8.5.

My best bet: Over 8.5 (-103 at SIA)

Blue Jays vs Guardians same-game parlay

Over 8.5

Williams Over 1.5 walks

Schneider Over 1.5 TB

As always, my same-game parlay starts off with our best bet which today is the full-game total Over 8.5. But next, let’s look at some reasons why this game could go Over — starting with Gavin Williams going Over his walk total.

Williams has had a lot of issues with handing out free passes, which isn’t surprising considering he’s only made eight big-league starts. However, that walk rate is sitting in the Bottom 10% of the bigs which has resulted in him giving up two or more walks in six of his eight starts.

The Blue Jays are tied for the sixth-highest walk-to-strikeout ratio in baseball, so adding Over 1.5 walks for Williams here looks like a smart move.

And you know we had to keep riding this hot streak with “Babe” Schnieder. He has at least two hits in each of his first three MLB games and two home runs. Add Schneider to go Over 1.5 total bases for a +525 payout.

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Blue Jays vs Guardians moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Blue Jays opened this American League matchup as -125 favorites and have seen the early money as they have moved to the -135 as of Monday afternoon. 

I think Toronto is the side to back here, I’m just not sure I want to at this price. The Blue Jays undoubtedly have a better lineup than the Guardians, who typically stink vs. left-handed pitching. That said, they will still have Jose Ramirez who is appealing his suspension for his brawl with Tim Anderson over the weekend, but closer Emmanuel Clase got hit with a one gamer and will sit out this matchup.

I'm also not really sure what Toronto will get out of Ryu until he gets a few more starts under his belt, so, the moneyline is a stay away from me.

The total hit the board at 9.0 and has been bet down to 8.5, with the Under juiced as high as -125 at some shops. I’m going against the money here but I broke down above why I like the Over and getting it at around even money makes me feel even better about it.

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Trend to know

The Blue Jays have hit the moneyline in 19 of their last 28 away games for +8.4 units. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Guardians

Blue Jays vs Guardians game info

Starting pitchers

Hyun Jin Ryu (0-1, 7.20 ERA): Ryu is set to make his second start since returning from Tommy John surgery. That said, it didn’t look like there were many limitations on the left hander, who threw 80 pitches over five innings in his first start back on the mound.

Gavin Williams (1-3, 3.38 ERA): Williams is the Guardians' top pitching prospect making his ninth start of the season. The 24-year-old right-hander mostly uses a four-seam fastball and a slider to get batters out but is looking for more strikeouts with 37 in 42 2/3 innings.