Blue Jays-Reds prediction: Picks, odds on Friday, August 18

The Toronto Blue Jays (67-55) will look to keep a hold on a coveted American League Wild Card spot when they travel to Cincinnati for a weekend series against the Reds (63-59), who are in the midst of a Wild Card dogfight themselves. The Blue Jays will send Jose Berrios (9-8, 3.53 ERA) to the mound in Friday’s series opener, while the Reds will counter with Brett Kennedy (0-0, 5.14 ERA). First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET from Great American Ball Park in Cincy.

Toronto enters as -162 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Reds are +136 underdogs. The total is set at 10.5.

Blue Jays-Reds picks: Friday, August 18

Injury report

Blue Jays

Out: SS Bo Bichette (right patellar tendinitis), RP Trevor Richards (neck inflammation), OF Kevin Kiermaier (right elbow laceration)

Reds

Out: SP Hunter Greene (right hip), 2B Jonathan India (left foot plantar fasciitis), SP Ben Lively (right pectoral strain), OF Jake Fraley (stress fracture in left fourth toe), C Curt Casali (left foot contusion)

Starting pitchers

Jose Berrios vs. Brett Kennedy

Berrios has gotten better as the season has gone on, as evidenced by his 2.97 ERA over his last seven games. That said, he’s coming off his worst start since April when he allowed six runs (four earned) in 4.1 innings against the Cubs. Berrios ranks in the 71st percentile in hard-hit rate and the 70th percentile in walk rate, but is also in the 23rd percentile in expected batting average and the 24th percentile in expected slugging.

Kennedy is making his second start for the Reds this season after he allowed four runs in five innings against the Nationals in July before being sent back down to the Minors. The 29-year-old was recalled earlier this month, and threw two scoreless innings in relief against the Pirates on Aug. 11. Prior to being called up by the Reds, Kennedy’s last MLB experience came in 2018 when he allowed 20 earned runs in 26.2 innings with the Padres in 2018.

Over/Under pick

Friday’s game has all the makings of a high-scoring affair. Not only is the game being played at the launching pad otherwise known as Great American Ballpark, it also features two pitchers who are liable to give up the long ball. Kennedy hasn’t given up a homer this season but allowed six of them in his last extended run in 2018, while Berrios has given up 17 home runs on the season and has allowed dingers in each of his last two starts.

Pick: Over 10.5

Moneyline pick

While I think Friday’s game will be a slugfest, I still think Berrios being on the mound will make a difference. He’s a far better starter than Kennedy, and should theoretically be able to keep the Reds lineup in check better than Kennedy on the other side.