Phillies vs. Diamondbacks prediction: Pick, odds for Game 5 of NLCS in 2023 MLB playoffs
What a difference a couple of days make. The Arizona Diamondbacks looked down and out over Games 1 and 2 in Philadelphia, but a couple of rollicking comeback wins at Chase Field — and a couple of meltdowns from the Phillies bullpen — have improbably evened up this NLCS. Now these teams meet again for what has become a pivotal Game 5, with a pair of aces taking the mound: Zack Wheeler (13-6, 3.61 ERA) will go for Philly, while Arizona hopes Zac Gallen (17-9, 3.47) can improve on his nightmarish start in Game 1. First pitch from Chase Field is set for 8:07 p.m. ET.
Philly enters as -130 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the D-backs at +110. The run total is set at 8.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks NLCS Game 5 picks: Saturday, Oct. 21
Injury report
Out: 1B Rhys Hoskins (knee)
Out: RP Scott McGough (shoulder)
Starting pitchers
Zack Wheeler vs. Zac Gallen
Wheeler had a weirdly snake-bit regular season; it was clear that he was as good as any starter in the NL, but bad batted-ball luck kept his numbers from quite reflecting that reality. The righty was still very good, of course, but the occasional glitch made it hard to think of him as a true ace. This month, however, he’s left no doubt: one run allowed and eight Ks in 6.2 dominant innings against the Marlins, 10 Ks over 6.1 innings against the fearsome Braves in the NLDS and six innings of two-run ball with eight more punchouts in Game 1 of this series have only added to Wheeler’s now-considerable postseason legacy. The righty’s fastball is, quite simply, among the very best in baseball, and it’s been cooking so far in October, sitting in the high 90s and staying above hitters’ bats. That sets up everything else, from his sinker to a wipeout slider. His lone start at Chase Field this year was similarly brilliant, with one run on four hits allowed over six innings with seven strikeouts.
Gallen ran into a buzzsaw in Game 1: Within four pitches, the Phillies had hit two home runs, and that sort of set the tone for the righty’s night. He’ll look to get back on the horse in far friendlier confines on Saturday night, and his 2.47 ERA at Chase Field this year (compared to 4.42 on the road) suggests he’ll do just that. The righty was rock-solid all year long, tying for fifth in baseball with 20 quality starts — including 18 of at least six innings and two or fewer earned runs. He’s come through time and again when the D-backs needed him most, whether it was the regular season (six shutout frames against the Yankees, 6.1 innings of two-run ball against the Astros in September to help Arizona clinch a Wild Card spot) and so far in the postseason (six innings, two runs against the Brewers in the Wild Card round, 5.1 innings and two runs against the Dodgers in the NLDS).
Over/Under pick
Arizona’s late rally pushed us into over territory last night, but I’m backing the under here with a far more compelling pitching matchup in Game 5. Wheeler is throwing the ball as well as anyone on Earth right now; the D-backs had no answers for him in Game 1, and they’ve had very few answers against anyone not named Craig Kimbrel in this series. The question, really, is whether Gallen will bounce back, and I’m optimistic on that front — both because of his comfort at Chase Field and how different this Phillies lineup has looked away from home.
Pick: Under 8
Moneyline pick
I got burned backing the Phillies on the moneyline yesterday — thanks again, Kimbrel — but lord help me I’m going back to the well one more time. I think the script will be far different than Game 1, with a true pitchers duel on tap. I just think Wheeler is the slightly better pitcher, and Philly’s is still the slightly better and more consistent lineup. Of course, October plays strange tricks, so who knows.
