Phillies vs Braves Predictions, Picks, Odds

Covers

09 October 2023

With some glaring similarities to last year's NLDS, the Phillies snagged Game 1 against the Braves and can put some serious pressure on them with Zack Wheeler taking the mound for Game 2. Read our MLB betting preview for the full breakdown.

The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies are gearing up for Game 2 of the NLDS in Georgia.

It's feeling like deja vu after the Phillies eliminated what many presumed to be the postseason favorites this time last season.

The Braves entered with similar expectations in this season's World Series odds and have just dropped Game 1 with one of their most talented young arms on the mound.

If they don't win tonight, it will seem like history is repeating itself. How will they respond?

Find out in my MLB playoff predictions and free MLB picks for Braves vs. Phillies below.

Phillies vs Braves odds

Phillies vs Braves Game 2 odds

Phillies vs Braves series odds

Phillies vs Braves predictions

Saturday was devastating for the Atlanta Braves and I doubt you can overstate it.

It wasn't just the loss for Atlanta, but everything that surrounded it. To have what happened last postseason in the background, to have Spencer Strider on the mound, and to have the best offense in baseball get shut out — it's a lot to bounce back from. That's before you add in Zack Wheeler.

The righty will take the mound tonight for the Philadelphia Phillies, and he's had some nice historical dominance against Atlanta throughout his career. His last 10 starts against Atlanta have looked like this: 77 innings pitched and 13 earned runs allowed. That's an average of over one earned run per nine innings pitched.

I'm not sure I can expect the Phillies to win outright and go up 2-0 in this series, but it's hard not to back Wheeler here in some way. Getting an implied probability of just over 50% to lead or have the game tied after five innings? There's some value in that and I'm jumping all over it.

The long ball can change things, but the reasonable expectation for this game should be a low-scoring one. Two exceptional pitchers taking the mound in the postseason yields those results more often than not. With that being the case, we're not asking for many runs from Philly against Braves starter Max Fried to cash this bet. However, there's a reason to have some confidence in them scratching across a few.

Fried has faced the Phillies once this season. It was a good performance, allowing just one earned run and striking out six batters in five innings, which is pretty standard for Fried.

The start before that, though? He went just over three innings and allowed four earned runs on eight hits in last year's postseason. That lingers in the mind of both teams and while it has no direct impact on tonight, it adds to the culmination of things that look dire for Atlanta.

Tonight will be Fried's first start in 17 days after a finger blister sidelined him, his fourth stint on the IL in the past two seasons. Fried is one of the league's top pitchers at his best, but how can he be trusted?

You can dig into the analytics if you'd like. They'll say this Braves offense is historically good and Zach Wheeler is an outstanding pitcher. They'll also say Fried has one of the best ground ball rates in the majors, but you'll see the Phillies hit ground balls at the seventh-lowest clip in the majors, making the task of inducing them much harder.

Those matter, but I don't know if those things hold near the significance of the situational aspects here — and those all point Philly's way.

My best bet: Phillies first five innings +0.5 (-125 at FanDuel)

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Phillies vs Braves same-game parlay

Phillies F5 ML

Kyle Schwarber to record a hit

Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 total bases

We're pairing an alternate version of our best bet with two legs for a nice payout.

The first of these is Kyle Schwarber to get a hit. Barreling up the ball and avoiding the ground out will be essential against Fried tonight. Nobody does that better on the Phillies roster than Schwarber.

I'm finishing up things with Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 total bases. This is simply a backing of faith in the league's MVP to step up when his team needs him the most. At the price point, it's challenging to pass up.

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Phillies vs Braves moneyline and Over/Under analysis

I expect the public to bet the Braves heavily in a desperate spot, which means the value of Philly will increase throughout the day — I'll likely end up on them. The best price available right now is +135. My projections priced this at +137, so I'd like more before taking that leap.

This analysis is relatively simple. The Phillies have a solid pitching edge with a much more known commodity against a player who has been injured over the last two seasons. The Braves also have pressure on them... immense pressure. They didn't respond to it well last season, so it's tough to think much has changed, especially after how Game 1 played out.

I'm not betting a side on the total, but I lean toward the Under as three of the last four meetings have gone in that direction.

Although I have questions about one of these pitcher, the runs should stay down. Given how important this game is for the Braves, you'll see any issues from Fried swiftly addressed with a bullpen hook.

I'm inclined to look at some live Over if we get an extremely low-scoring game — like zero runs through four innings. However, I'll likely stay away from this market altogether.

Trend to know

The Phillies have won 30 of their last 48 road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Braves.

Phillies vs Braves game info

Starting pitchers

Zack Wheeler (1-0, 1.35 ERA): Historically speaking, Wheeler has had more of a down season. It's the third-highest ERA he's posted in his career, the highest hard-hit rate, and the third-highest exit velocity. With that said, it's still been a reasonably good season. The ERA says enough, but the deeper numbers tell the whole picture. He excels at getting swings and misses like he has for much of his career, with a K-rate and whiff rate in the Top 30% of baseball. He'll enter this game with one postseason start under his belt when he went six innings, allowing one earned run against the Marlins.

Max Fried (0-0, 0.00 ERA): If the Braves want to win this series and ultimately win it all, Fried is a big part of that. He separates them, and although we had to wait a while for him to be healthy this season, he's been special. He's coming off his best month, too. September saw him post an ERA of 1.80 with three straight starts of allowing one earned run or less. You'd like a little more chase and more velocity on his fastballs, but that's being nit-picky. Fried enters the postseason with one of the highest ground ball rates in the league and an insane ability to induce soft contact.