Phillies vs. Pirates prediction and odds for Sunday, July 30 (Young bats lead Bucs)

Yesterday, it was David Bednar’s bobblehead night in Pittsburgh and Bednar pulled off a five-out save getting a double play to end the game. It was a 7-6 win for the Pittsburgh Pirates over the Philadelphia Phillies and now the cross-state rivals will play the rubber match today. After the win the Pirates are 46-58 while the Phillies fell to 56-48. 

It’ll be a matchup of lefties on the mound with Cristopher Sanchez making his ninth start for Philadelphia and Rich Hill making his 22nd start of the year. Sanchez is 0-3, but with a 2.98 ERA in his rookie season. Hill is 19 years into his career and is 7-10 with a 4.82 ERA in year 19. 

Let’s get into the odds for the finale between Philly and Pittsburgh at PNC Park. 

The Pirates have a 43-year-old veteran on the mound today, but yesterday they leaned on their rookie for the one-run win. Quinn Priester made the start and all seven of their runs were driven in by rookies, four by Endy Rodriguez, two from Liover Peguero and one from Alika Williams. The Pirates have been relying on the young guns a lot and will need them to match the offense of the Phillies today. 

The Phillies have a lot of lefties in their lineup and are 17th in OPS against left-handed pitching. The Pirates are 20th. Hill has been solid this year, but he’s more of an innings eater than anything. He’ll likely get out of the game with a bit of damage done, but not a catastrophic amount and will need his bullpen to pick him up. That’s the tough part because Bednar has to be taxed after yesterday and without him the Pittsburgh bullpen is not nearly as effective. 

There is hope that Pittsburgh will be able to hang around because Sanchez has a 4.06 FIP which is well over a run higher than his ERA. Last start he had eight strikeouts and no walks, but he did allow two home runs. So far he’s allowed seven home runs in eight starts and is well under a strikeout an inning. His walk rate isn’t bad, but without the ability to miss bats consistently while giving up consistent hard contact is a bad recipe. 

I think regression is coming for Sanchez and the Pirates look a bit better with the young bats in the lineup. I’ll take the over in this Sunday's rubber match.  

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change