Brewers vs Phillies Prediction, Picks, Odds
The Brewers are one of baseball's more patient teams. With a couple of their more strikeout-prone hitters on the IL, that element only gets amplified. Our betting picks see walks as a prop to exploit for Philly starter Christopher Sanchez as a result.
The Philadelphia Phillies hung on for a 4-3 win yesterday as a heavy -210 favorite vs. the visiting Milwaukee Brewers and Julio Teheran. Now, with a more even starting pitching matchup in Colin Rea vs. Christopher Sanchez, the home side sits as a -175 favorite on the moneyline and is looking for its fifth straight win.
With a more neutral starting pitching matchup than yesterday and a chance to dig into a wounded Philadelphia bullpen, is taking the road dogs at big plus money the play today at Citizens Bank Park?
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Brewers vs. Phillies for Wednesday, July 19.
Brewers vs Phillies odds
Brewers vs Phillies predictions
Christopher Sanchez has made six starts for the Phillies and walked just five batters over 30-plus innings. Those are elite command numbers across a small sample size but when I look at the lefty’s track record in the minors, I see a much different story that is leading to a ton of value in backing the Over on his walks issued prop set at 1.5.
Over his 346 innings of minor-league ball, the lefty has walked 166 batters — good for 0.48 walks per inning. That’s in stark comparison to his 0.16 BB/inning this year with the Phillies. The smaller sample size this year with the big club is masking some control issues, which are certainly not priced into this plus-money Over at +150.
Milwaukee is also a sneaky good walk team with the third-highest BB% in all of baseball. High strikeout hitters Rowdy Tellez and Brian Anderson are also on the shelf, which helps.
Every major projection has Sanchez as a 9% walk rate or more, meaning this Over crosses the line three times through the order. THE BAT is projecting 14.6 outs and 1.73 walks from the Phillies starter giving this play a 53.1% win probability but at great odds and 27.4% expected value, it's a fantastic play today.
My best bet: Christopher Sanchez Over 1.5 walks (+150 at bet365)
Brewers vs Phillies same-game parlay
Christopher Sanchez Over 1.5 walks (+150)
Brewers moneyline (+145)
Andruw Monasterio Over 0.5 total bases (-175)
Taking a pair of big plus-money plays is not something everyone loves to do in a parlay but I'm getting the walks and ML play at +450 when the true odds are +500, which is a decent multiplier for two correlated plays.
Sanchez's current MLB command numbers do not reflect his bigger sample size in the minors and bettors are getting a great deal on that Over.
Milwaukee has moved significantly on the ML as bettors are realizing that there isn't a 60-70 point difference today between these two teams.
Andruw Monasterio is coming off a three-base night and is crushing lefties in his rookie campaign with a .500 OBP and 180 wRC+ vs. southpaws over 32 plate appearances.
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Brewers vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Phillies closed at -210 yesterday in a very lopsided pitching matchup — about as lopsided as you can get in Aaron Nola vs. Julio Teheran. Now they’ve moved 35 points to -175 in a much more even matchup and although Milwaukee is missing some bats and the Phillies are on a four-game win streak, there might be value in the visitors today at +155.
First off, the market is starting to move to the Brewers, so that is telling.
Secondly, Nola’s long leash masked the Phillies' most glaring weakness yesterday, which is their bullpen (a tale as old as time in Philadelphia, it seems). Today, Sanchez is not projected to get deep (fewer than 15 outs) and will give way to a stable of relievers that is inconsistent and missing two arms in Jose Alvarado and Seranthony Dominguez. Even last night's win had some sweaty moments for the Philly pen.
If this game is settled in the later innings, as the Sanchez vs. Colin Rea matchup is very neutral, the edge lies with the Milwaukee bullpen.
The Brewers have also been a tough team to hit of late as they are 4-1 straight up in their last five and have three shutouts in that stretch. They also held this Philadelphia offense to just four runs as a heavy dog yesterday and with a replaceable Teheran on the mound.
Rea is a decent arm to back to as a dog and I’m more confident in him than Teheran even at this adjusted price.
The total is a tough one to gauge here as the Milwaukee offense is weak but its bullpen is solid. Yesterday, the total closed at 9.5, and for today’s game, it opened at 9 and has seen very little movement. There are some stray 9.5s out there and the Under is appetizing as I see this closing at 9, especially with neutral weather conditions with a weak crosswind and sub-80 temps. However, I’m off this total completely and think the play is on the visitors at +155.
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Trend to know
The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 26 games (+8.90 Units / 30% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Phillies
Brewers vs Phillies game info
Starting pitchers
Colin Rea (5-4, 4.71 ERA): Rea will be making his 17th start and has 67/26 K:BB ratio over 80-plus innings with 13 home runs allowed. He owns an expected ERA and FIP lower than his actuals but has a shorter leash and has thrown more than 91 pitches just once this year. The Brewers are 9-7 SU when Rea starts and THE BAT projects 80 pitches, 13.6 outs, 3.67 strikeouts, 3.24 earned runs.
Cristopher Sanchez (0-3, 3.26 ERA): Sanchez is making his seventh start of the season for the Phillies and comes in with a 27/5 K:BB ratio over 30-plus innings with five home runs — all coming in his last four starts. The groundball pitcher has a sneaky-good 3.39 xFIP but is based on a walk rate that doesn’t mirror his minor league numbers. The Phillies are 3-3 when the lefty starts and THE BAT projects 82 pitches, 14.7 outs, 4.3 strikeouts, and 2.36 earned runs.
