Phillies vs. Pirates Prediction: MLB Betting Lines & Picks

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28 July 2023

Phillies vs. Pirates Prediction: MLB Betting Lines & Picks

The Philadelphia Phillies (55-47) and Pittsburgh Pirates (45-57) clash on Friday at 7:05 PM ET, opening a three-game series at PNC Park.

The Pirates play as a home underdog (+133) against the Phillies (-158). The matchup has an over/under set at 8.5 total runs.

The betting trends in what follows reference odds valid as of July 28, 2023 at 1:16 AM ET. Ready to bet?

Phillies vs Pirates Betting Lines

Phillies Betting Insights

The Phillies have been favorites in 64 games this season and won 38 (59.4%) of those contests.
Philadelphia is 15-10 this season when entering a game favored by -158 or more on the moneyline.
Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Phillies have a 61.2% chance to win.
Games involving Philadelphia has gone over the total set by oddsmakers in 42 of 102 chances this season.
The Phillies are 44-58-0 against the spread in their 102 chances this season.

Phillies Last 10 Games Trend

Pirates Betting Insights

The Pirates have been underdogs in 81 games this season and have come away with the win 33 times (40.7%) in those contests.
This year, Pittsburgh has won 15 of 35 games when listed as at least +133 or worse on the moneyline.
Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Pirates have a 42.9% chance of pulling out a win.
Contests with Pittsburgh has gone over the total set by oddsmakers in 52 of 102 chances this season.
In 102 games with a line this season, the Pirates have a mark of 46-56-0 against the spread.

Pirates Last 10 Games Trend

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Phillies Probable Pitcher – Zack Wheeler

Wheeler’s team is 8-12-0 against the spread this season in his starts.
The right-hander gave up one earned run in seven innings pitched on Saturday in his last outing, a matchup with the Cleveland Guardians.
Wheeler will look to finish five or more innings for the ninth start in a row.
He has made 20 appearances and finished four of them without allowing an earned run.
Wheeler’s team has won 61.1% of his starts when they are favored on the moneyline (11-7).
Wheeler’s team has a 13-7 record in his starts this season.
In Wheeler’s 20 starts with a total, the teams have hit the over eight times.

Phillies Relief Pitchers

Pirates Probable Pitcher – Mitch Keller

The Pirates will send Keller (9-6) to the mound to make his 22nd start of the season as he looks for his 10th win. He is 9-6 with a 4.01 ERA and 137 strikeouts over 128 2/3 innings pitched.
His most recent appearance was on Sunday against the Los Angeles Angels, when the righty threw five innings, surrendering six earned runs while allowing nine hits.
Keller is trying for his 21st straight appearance lasting five or more innings. He averages 6.1 innings per start.
In three of his appearances this season he did not allow an earned run.
The Pirates have been the moneyline underdog in 13 of Keller’s starts this season, and they went 7-6 in those matchups.
Keller’s team has put together an 11-10 record over his 21 starts.
Keller has had 21 starts that oddsmakers set a total for this season, and 11 of those outings hit the over.

Pirates Relief Pitchers

Phillies Hitting Trends

The Phillies are 22-8 this season in games when they send out two or more bombs.
Philadelphia has gone 18-6 in its 24 games this season with at least five extra-base hits.
The club is 44-23 in the games this season it has racked up at least eight hits.
Philadelphia is 39-6 in games this season when it scored five or more runs.
The Phillies have drawn five or more walks in 32 games this season, and are 23-9 in those contests.

Pirates Hitting Trends

They have won 20 of the 27 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
In 20 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 17-3.
In 45 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 31-14.
In 35 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 28-7.
In 29 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 14-15

Phillies vs. Pirates Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Phillies (-158)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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