Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Prediction: MLB Betting Lines & Picks

The Pittsburgh Pirates (24-20) host the Arizona Diamondbacks (25-20) at 4:05 PM ET on Saturday.

The favored Pirates (-150 moneyline odds) play at home against the Diamondbacks (+128). The over/under for this game is set at 8.5.

The insights in what follows reflect odds as of May 20, 2023 at 3:21 PM ET. Ready to bet?

Pirates vs Diamondbacks Betting Lines

Pirates Betting Insights

• The Pirates have been favorites in 12 games this season and won nine (75%) of those contests.
• Pittsburgh has a record of 4-2 when favored by -150 or more by sportsbooks this season.
• The bookmakers’ moneyline implies a 60% chance of a victory for the Pirates.
• Pittsburgh’s games have gone over the total in 18 of its 37 chances.
• The Pirates are 19-18-0 ATS in their 37 games with a spread this season.

Pirates Last 10 Games Trend

Diamondbacks Betting Insights

• The Diamondbacks have been chosen as underdogs in 18 games this year and have walked away with the win 10 times (55.6%) in those games.
• This season, Arizona has been victorious two times in five chances when named as an underdog of at least +128 or worse on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Diamondbacks have a 43.9% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
• Contests with Arizona has gone over the total set by bookmakers in 19 of 37 chances this season.
• The Diamondbacks are 20-17-0 against the spread in their 37 games that had a posted line this season.

Diamondbacks Last 10 Games Trend

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Pirates Probable Pitcher – Mitch Keller

• Keller’s team is 6-1-0 against the spread this season in his starts.
• The right-hander last pitched on Sunday, when he allowed four hits in seven scoreless innings against the Baltimore Orioles.
• Keller has pitched five or more innings in eight straight games and will look to extend that streak.
• Keller has started three games with his team as the moneyline favorite and won each of them.
• Keller’s team is 7-2 when he starts this season.
• In Keller’s seven starts with a total, the teams have hit the over four times.

Pirates Relief Pitchers

Diamondbacks Probable Pitcher – Brandon Pfaadt

• The Diamondbacks are sending Pfaadt (0-1) out to make his fourth start of the season. He is 0-1 with an 8.59 ERA and 11 strikeouts over 14 2/3 innings pitched.
• In his last time out on Sunday against the San Francisco Giants, the right-hander tossed five innings, giving up one earned run while surrendering one hit.
• Pfaadt will aim to last five or more innings for his third straight start. He’s averaging 4.7 innings per outing.
• The Diamondbacks were the underdog on the moneyline for two Pfaadt starts this season — they won both.
• Over Pfaadt’s three starts, his team is 2-1.
• Pfaadt has had three starts that sportsbooks set a total for this season, and one of those games finished over the total.

Diamondbacks Relief Pitchers

Pirates Hitting Trends

• The Pirates are 13-1 this season in games when they crush two or more homers.
• Pittsburgh is undefeated in its 11 games this season with five or more extra-base hits.
• The team has notched eight or more hits 21 times this season, and has a 16-5 record in those games.
• Pittsburgh is 15-2 in games this season when it scored five or more runs.
• The Pirates have drawn five or more walks in 15 games this season, and are 10-5 in those contests.

Diamondbacks Hitting Trends

• They’ve hit two or more homers in 20 games this season and are 14-6 in those matchups.
• Arizona has gone 11-4 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
• They have won 27 of the 37 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
• Arizona has won 28 of its 33 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
• They have won 10 of their 20 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.

Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Pirates (-150)
Over/Under Pick: Under (8.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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