Phillies vs White Sox Prediction, Picks, Odds

While Mike Clevinger's looked decent in this young season, his old control issues are rearing their head again. See why our MLB picks think that will haunt the White Sox starter against the Phillies today.

There are a slew of afternoon games on the MLB betting board this Wednesday, including an interleague showdown between the Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago White Sox.

These teams split their double-header yesterday and enter this contest with identical 7-11 records. Oddsmakers are having a tough time separating them, today with the Phillies installed as slim -115 road favorites and the Over/Under at 8.5.

Here are my best free Phillies vs. White Sox MLB picks and predictions for April 19.

Phillies vs White Sox odds

Phillies vs White Sox predictions

White Sox righthander Mike Clevinger has looked very sharp in two of his first three starts. However, he's struggled with his control in all of them, walking at least two batters in each appearance.

In his last contest, he held the Orioles to just one hit across six innings, but had five walks. Clevinger also had control issues earlier in his career, and those seem to have resurfaced with the righthander having the worst BB% of his career (14.1%) and ranking in the bottom 20th percentile of the majors in walk rate.

Take the Over 1.5 on Clevinger's walks issued today.

My best bet: Clevinger Over 1.5 walks (-145 at DraftKings)

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Phillies vs White Sox moneyline analysis

The Phillies beat the White Sox 7-4 in their first showdown yesterday, before losing 3-0 in the second contest. They've now won three of their last five games, but in both of those defeats, they were held off the scoreboard.

The Phillies are fifth in the majors in OPS (.788) but have been held to two or fewer runs in four of their last eight games. They'll need to be more consistent at the plate if they want to get back to the World Series.

They'll be missing two-time MVP Bryce Harper for at least a few more weeks as he rehabs from UCL surgery. Until Harper returns, they'll need All-Stars Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and J.T. Realmuto to carry the offense. Interestingly enough, it's been youngsters Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, and Brandon Marsh who have actually done the heavy lifting with all of them batting above .340. 

Clevinger has pitched to a 2.20 ERA this season but his expected ERA of 5.96 is a bit concerning. That's partially due to his sky-high walk rate, but also has to do with an expected batting average of .265.

Despite the White Sox winning in the second game of the doubleheader, they're just 2-5 in their last seven games.

The White Sox are 19th in OPS (.711) and one of their better contact hitters, Tim Anderson, will be sidelined until the end of the month, along with Yoan Moncada. Outfielder Luis Robert leads the team with five home runs and 13 RBI. 

Taijuan Walker gets the start for Philly, and while his ERA is higher than Clevinger's, his xERA (3.06) and xBA (.177) are significantly better. That said, at this point in this career we know what Walker is, and that's a solid, if unremarkable, veteran who gets roughed up at times. 

Phillies vs White Sox Over/Under analysis

Not only have the Phillies struggled with consistently generating runs, but their batting analytics suggest that they're not quite as good as their OPS suggests. Philadelphia is 16th in the majors in barrel rate while ranking 21st in hard-hit rate.

The White Sox are just 24th in hard-hit rate. They didn't have a single player hit more than 17 home runs last year and their top slugger from a year ago (2020 Silver Slugger recipient Eloy Jimenez) is in the midst of a slump batting just .184. 

With both teams not hitting with much power and winds blowing toward home base at 12 mph at Guaranteed Rate field, the Under might be tempting.

However, keep in mind that both teams have gotten brutal play from their bullpens. The White Sox bullpen squandered Clevinger's previous start and they rank dead-last in the majors in ERA (7.04) and WHIP (1.89).

Philadelphia's relievers were 25th in the majors in WHIP last year (1.39) and have been even worse so far this year, ranking 29th in WHIP (1.71) and 28th in ERA (6.30).

Phillies vs White Sox game info

Phillies vs White Sox betting preview

Starting pitchers

Taijuan Walker (1-1, 4.20 ERA): Walker put together a nice season with the Mets last year, going 12-5 with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.

The 30-year-old was lit up by the Yankees in his first start this season but has shown improvement in his last two outings. He's coming off a win against the Reds where he limited them to one run across six innings. 

Mike Clevinger (2-0, 2.20 ERA): Clevinger had been one of the top pitchers in the majors and had gone 41-20 with a 2.96 ERA between 2017 and 2020. He missed the 2021 season due to recovery from Tommy John surgery and his ERA dropped to 4.33 in his first year back last season.

Clevinger has made three starts this season, looking terrific against the Astros and Orioles but getting knocked around for eight hits and four runs in 5.1 innings versus the Pirates. In his last start, he pitched at home against the O's and allowed just one hit in six innings of shutout ball.

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Trend to know

The Over is 8-1-1 in Chicago's last 10 home games while going 4-1 in Philadelphia's previous five contests on the road. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. White Sox