Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago White Sox odds, picks and predictions

The Philadelphia Phillies (6-10) and Chicago White Sox (6-10) tangle Monday in Chicago. The first pitch in the opening game of a 3-game series at Guaranteed Rate Field is slated for 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. White Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting of 2023. The Phillies and White Sox have not met since 2019.

Philadelphia is coming off a split of a 4-game series at the Cincinnati Reds. The Phillies enter this set allowing 5.69 runs per game, which ranks 27th in MLB.

The White Sox are 28th with 6.06 runs allowed per game and opened their 6-game homestand by losing 2 of 3 to the Baltimore Orioles over the weekend. Chicago allowed 6 or more runs in all 3 games.

Phillies at White Sox projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Lance Lynn

Wheeler (0-1, 4.02 ERA) is making his 4th start of the season. He owns a 1.40 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 through 15 2/3 IP.

• Clocked a 2.82 ERA last season and owns a 3.43 ERA over his 198-game career
• Has been hurt by a .333 batting average on balls in play

Lynn (0-1, 7.31 ERA) is tabbed for his 4th start. He has a 1.63 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 11.8 K/9 through 16 IP.

• Has held current Philadelphia bats to an aggregate .585 OPS
• Looking to bounce back from allowing 8 ER on 9 H (3 HR) in his last home turn on April 6 vs. the San Francisco Giants

Phillies at White Sox odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:50 a.m. ET.

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Phillies at White Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

White Sox 5, Phillies 4

Wheeler is the better starter, but Lynn is attached to more value. Across Lynn’s 2022-23 seasons (24 combined starts), he’s allowed 16.1% of all fly balls to be booked as home runs. That’s a high mark. There is gopher-itis and then there is acute gopher-itis, and Lynn has a case of the latter. Expect Lynn to shave that 16% down to something closer to the league average (11.4% last season).

The Phillies have the better offense too, but these prices are closer to value for the home nine. PASS, but consider a partial-unit play on the White Sox if that tag reaches +110.

PASS. The RL pricing is better on the Philadelphia side but I’m not convinced its going to squeak out a win, and especially not one by multiple runs.

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The Over is 7-0-1 in Chicago’s last 8 home games.

Both of these bullpens have been awful so far. They both carry Boeing ERAs (Phillies 7.19, White Sox 7.32) into this series and both have walked a ton of batters. While they have been hurt by high BABIP figures, they are bottom-third units at best.

Wheeler is a solid starter, but he’s gettable on the road (last 3 years: 3.70 ERA road vs. 2.19 ERA home).

The Chicago weather report calls for a cold night but one with a brisk wind — upwards of 20 miles per hour — blowing out toward center field. BACK THE OVER 8 (-105).

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