Pirates-Braves prediction: Picks, odds on Friday, September 8

After salvaging the final game of their midweek series with the St. Louis Cardinals, the Atlanta Braves look to make it two in a row as they welcome the Pittsburgh Pirates to town this weekend. First pitch of Friday’s opener from Truist Park is set for 7:20 p.m. ET. Pittsburgh will send Mitch Keller (11-8, 3.93 ERA) to the mound, while Atlanta counters with rookie Bryce Elder (11-4, 3.42).

The Braves enter as heavy -218 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Pirates at +180. The run total is set at 9.5.

Pirates-Braves picks: Friday, September 8

Injury report

Pirates

Out: OF Andrew McCutchen (Achilles), C/OF Henry Davis (hand), SS Oneil Cruz (leg), RP Angel Perdomo (elbow)

Braves

Out: SP Michael Soroka (forearm), RP Collin McHugh (shoulder), SP/RP Yonny Chirinos (elbow), OF Ehire Adrianza (shoulder), OF Sam Hilliard (heel), SP Kyle Wright (shoulder), RP Nick Anderson (shoulder), RP Jesse Chavez (shin)

Starting pitchers

Mitch Keller vs. Bryce Elder

After a very rough start to his second half, Keller has settled back in of late, giving up just one run on nine hits across 14 innings over his last two starts against the Cubs and Cardinals. He’s now spun four quality starts in a row, with his sinker, four-seamer and cutter all doing their part to keep hitters off-balance and force a ton of weak contact (82nd percentile in average exit velocity). When Keller has his command working, he’s looked like a Cy Young candidate; the command has tended to come and go a bit too often, though.

Elder’s season has followed something of a similar trajectory, but the rookie has started to settle back in of late with six runs allowed across his last four starts — including six innings of one-run ball (albeit with four walks) against the Dodgers last weekend. Elder doesn’t have the most overwhelming arsenal, barely cracking 90 mph on the gun and using his sinker to produce one of the league’s highest ground-ball rates. When he’s avoiding the heart of the plate and successfully nibbling at the edges, though, he can still be very successful — especially with Atlanta’s offense backing him up.

Over/Under pick

Keller has been cooking recently, but so have the Braves, and if Elder doesn’t have usual precision he can give up crooked numbers in a hurry — he gave up five runs over five innings in his last start against the Pirates. Pittsburgh games have cleared this total in three of five, and with Atlanta on the other side, I’m banking on the over here.

Pick: Over 9.5

Moneyline pick

Look, there simply isn’t much juice at all on backing the Braves here, and if any pitcher can come into Atlanta and snag a win, it’s Keller when he’s on his game. Elder just got hit hard by this same Pirates squad last month, and while there’s risk here, there’s also plenty of reward.