Pirates vs Brewers Prediction, Picks, Odds

Christian Yelich is having his best year since winning NL MVP in 2019 and is in a great position to have a big game against struggling Pirates hurler Mitch Keller. Our betting picks are backing the Brew Crew as they make a charge for the division crown.

At this point, the NL Central is anybody’s division, which is why a four-game series between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Milwaukee Brewers carries so much importance in the second half of the season.

With the Brewers just a half-game back of the Cincinnati Reds, but holding a slim three-game lead over the Chicago Cubs, they’ve got to take care of business against the Pirates and their -71 run differential.

Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Pirates vs. Brewers on Thursday, August 3.

Pirates vs Brewers odds

Pirates vs Brewers predictions

There was once a time when Christian Yelich looked like the next face of baseball after winning NL MVP in 2019. Since then, he’s dealt with injuries, inconsistency, and career lows in just about every statistical category.

This season, he’s having something of a renaissance as he tries to lead the Brew Crew back to the playoffs and this series against the Pirates is the perfect opportunity for him to remind people just how dominant he was in 2018 and 2019.

The 31-year-old has even been at his best as of late with 34 hits, 20 runs, nine doubles, nine walks, and seven home runs in 26 games since the start of July.

The two-time All-Star matches up well against the Buccos ace Mitch Keller. Keller may have earned his first All-Star selection this season, but he has been taken to task for much of last month.

While Keller doesn’t lean too heavily on any one pitch, his go-to fastball (used 25.2% of the time this season), cutter (22.3%), and sinker (21.9%) are all pitches Yelich would love to see tonight.

This season, Yelich is absolutely bashing those pitches with a .339 average and .636 slugging percentage against four-seamers, a .361 average and .556 slugging percentage against cutters, and a .317 average and .524 slugging percentage against sinkers.

It only helps his case that in Keller’s five starts last month, he gave up 34 hits in 28 2/3 innings.

My best bet: Christian Yelich Over 1.5 total bases (+145 at bet365)

Pirates vs Brewers same-game parlay

Christian Yelich Over 1.5 total bases (+145)

Over 8.5 (-115)

Brewers moneyline (-130)

With the Brewers on the Reds' heels in the NL Central — and tied with the Miami Marlins for the third Wild Card — this divisional matchup with the Pirates is huge.

Since the All-Star break, they’ve gone 9-9 while flirting with playoff contention, but need to show more consistency game-to-game. Luckily for manager Craig Counsell, Pittsburgh is ripe for the picking.

The Pirates are 7-10 since the return and, more importantly, there’s been a total of at least nine runs scored 11 times in those 17 games. Pittsburgh tends to get shelled, which is why they’ve hit the game total Over in 37 of their last 65 games.

With Adrian Houser set to start for the Brewers, the Buccos should have an opportunity to score some runs of their own. Houser has given up at least three earned runs in six of his 12 starts this season.

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Pirates vs Brewers moneyline and Over/Under analysis

With both teams coming off losses on Wednesday, the Brewers opened as Game 1 home favorites between -120 and -125 at most books.

The line has shifted slightly towards Milwaukee with it being had between -125 and -135 just about everywhere. The best odds being offered for Pittsburgh are +115.

As for the total, it opened at 8.5 and hasn’t budged. With the Pirates being known for high-scoring games this season — and it’s not because they have an overpowering offense — it’s hard to pass up the Over.

The Brewers are 47-13 when scoring four or more runs in 2023, but an offensive explosion comes down to the face of the franchise. 

Yelich talked last week about ignoring the noise of how he’ll never recapture his MVP form, and why that’s helped him play his best baseball in years. 

“As soon as you don’t (care) anymore about what people think, and you’re just like, ‘You know what, I’m going to help this team win. I’m going to be the best version of myself for the guys in this clubhouse and just try and help everybody win today,’ it’s just a good mentality to have,” he said.

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Trend to know

The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 41 games (+6.50 Units / 14% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Brewers

Pirates vs Brewers game info

Starting pitchers

Mitch Keller (9-7, 3.97 ERA): After a hot start to the season that led to his first All-Star Game appearance, the 27-year-old struggled in July. He allowed 16 earned runs across his last three starts and will need to rebound in August to prove he can be the ace the Pirates so desperately need. With at least seven strikeouts in 15 of his 22 starts this year, Keller has shown immense potential, however, consistency is the key and his slump is concerning. 

Adrian Houser (3-3, 4.43 ERA): Houser hasn’t shown much dependability this year, going just six innings four times in 12 starts. July was a particularly tough month for him as he gave up 26 hits and 13 earned runs in just 20 2/3 innings. Coming off a game against the Braves where he only went four innings with three strikeouts and six earned runs, the Brewers will need him to hold it together against the Pirates as they prepare for a run in the NL Central.