Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

The Pittsburgh Pirates (48-59) open a 4-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers (58-51) on Thursday at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Brewers lead 5-1

The Pirates lost 6-3 to the Detroit Tigers on Wednesday, which ended a 3-game winning streak. Despite its recent success, Pittsburgh remains in 4th place in the NL Central, 9 1/2 games back of the division-leading Cincinnati Reds.

The Brewers were defeated 3-2 by the Washington Nationals Wednesday as they lost a 2nd straight series. Milwaukee has lost 7 of its last 10 games, but it remains only half a game back of the Reds in the NL Central.

Pirates at Brewers projected starters

RHP Mitch Keller vs. RHP Adrian Houser

Keller (9-7, 3.97 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 through 133 2/3 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 8 K in 2-1 home loss vs. Philadelphia Phillies Friday
• 2023 road stats: 4-4, 4.33 ERA (70 2/3 IP, 34 ER) over 12 starts
• Career vs. Brewers: 0-3, 4.62 ERA (25 1/3 IP, 13 ER) across 5 starts

Houser (3-3, 4.43 ERA) makes his 13th start and 15th appearance. He has a 1.57 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 through 67 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 10-7 road loss vs. Atlanta Braves Friday
• 2023 home stats: 1-1, 4.13 ERA (28 1/3 IP, 13 ER) in 5 starts and 1 relief appearance
• Career vs. Pirates: 3-3, 4.05 ERA (53 1/3 IP, 24 ER) across 9 starts and 4 relief appearances

Pirates at Brewers odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:58 a.m. ET.

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Pirates at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 6, Pirates 3

I’ll side with the BREWERS (-135) in Thursday’s divisional bout despite that they’ve been struggling lately. The Brewers have won 7 of the last 10 meetings between these clubs, including 6 of the last 7.

BREWERS -1.5 (+150) is a fantastic value as Milwaukee is the superior team. Aside from his last 2 starts against the Braves, Houser has been solid this season despite not inducing many swings and misses.

On the other hand, Keller has been shaky on the mound for the Pirates since the All-Star break.

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OVER 8.5 (-110) is the lean in this matchup with Keller’s recent woes and Houser’s inability to miss bats. Keller has given up a combined 18 earned runs and 6 home runs across 3 starts since the All-Star break.

The Brewers have plated at least 5 runs in 4 of their last 6 games, and the Over is 4-2 in the first 6 meetings between these clubs this season.

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