Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks odds, picks and predictions

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The Pittsburgh Pirates (40-49) look to avoid being swept by the Arizona Diamondbacks (52-38) Sunday in the finale of a 3-game series. First pitch from Chase Field is at 4:10 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Diamondbacks lead 4-1

The Pirates have lost 3-2 in 10 innings Saturday after dropping the series opener 7-3 on Friday. Pittsburgh has lost 4 straight games and 7 of its last 8 overall and is 9 1/2 games back of the Cincinnati Reds in the NL Central.

The Diamondbacks have bounced back from a 4-game losing streak from last Sunday-Thursday. Arizona maintains a half-game lead in the NL West over the Los Angeles Dodgers despite the recent stumble.

Pirates at Diamondbacks projected starters

RHP Carmen Mlodzinski vs. RHP Zach Davies

Mlodzinski (1-1, 2.61 ERA) makes his 1st career start and 10th appearance. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 3 BB and 8 K through 10 1/3 IP.

• Last appearance: 1 IP, 0 R, 0 H, 0 BB, 1 K in relief vs. the Dodgers Tuesday
• Has not allowed a run in his last 5 2/3 IP spanning 5 appearances

Davies (1-4, 6.52 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.57 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 48 1/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 6 K in an 8-5 home loss to New York Mets Tuesday
• Arizona lost his last 5 starts
• Has allowed 4 or more runs in 4 of his last 5 outings

Pirates at Diamondbacks odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:52 a.m. ET.

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Pirates at Diamondbacks picks and predictions

Prediction

Pirates 7, Diamondbacks 4

The Pirates have been swept 4 times this season and 2 of those sweeps have come away from PNC Park. They are 18-28 on the road and 1-7 in their last 8 road contests.

However, the Diamondbacks have only had one home series sweep all season and have lost Davies’ last 5 outings. The righty has an 8.49 ERA across 23 1/3 innings over that stretch.

The Diamondbacks have not won more than 2 games in a row since a 6-game streak from Junes 6-12.

BET PIRATES (+135).

The Diamondbacks are 52-38 ATS this season overall, the 4th-best mark in baseball. However, Arizona is just 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games.

The Pirates covered the spread in their 1-run loss on Saturday, making them 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games.

Going against a struggling Davies, they should not only be able to cover but win outright.

Betting the run line isn’t a bad play because it gives you some extra breathing room, but 13 of Pittsburgh’s last 15 losses have been by 2 or more runs. The Bucs have only covered the spread in a loss as an underdog twice since May 24, so the likelihood is that if they cover, they will win outright, making the plus-money odds on the moneyline the best play.

PASS.

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Four of Davies’ last 5 starts have had totals of 10 runs or more.

Three of the 5 games between these teams this season have had totals of 10 or more.

Five of the Pirates’ last 9 games have had 10 or more total runs.

BET OVER 9.5 (+100).

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