Players Championship best bets: PGA Tour odds, picks, predictions
It didn’t take long to find our first winner of the season.
While Scottie Scheffler was the overwhelming favorite last week, we shouldn’t scoff at a +650 win (+950 if you used our recommended boost on DraftKings).
We’ll try to keep that momentum going this week at The Players Championship.
While this is no longer considered the fifth major, it is still the biggest tournament in the early portion of the golf schedule as the flagship event of the PGA Tour.
TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla., is one of the most iconic courses in the world. The 17th hole might be the most iconic in professional golf.
I was lucky enough to play the course a few years ago and hit the hole’s island green – on my third attempt, but it still counts.
Designed by Pete Dye, TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 that measures 7,275 yards. It is a course where all types of golfers can contend.
Dye’s courses tend to negate power off the tee. The average driving distance at this event last year was only 284 yards – one of the lowest marks on tour.
The course has a combination of holes with doglegs and others that force layups. With thick rough and water hazards lurking everywhere, it’s important to keep the ball in the short grass. This is one of the rare weeks where accuracy is more important than distance.
The greens are small (5,500 square feet) and difficult to hit on average (59% GIR rate in 2023). TPC Sawgrass keeps the emphasis on approach play.
With respect to yardage, 40% of approach shots will come from inside 150 yards and 25% will come from at least 200 yards. This means golfers will have a lot of shots off wedges and long iron shots this week.
A tidy short game is needed when golfers miss greens, which happens quite often at Sawgrass, especially when the wind picks up.
This is a course where birdies and big numbers will be made in bunches.
In general, the more water hazards there are on a course, the more variance increases. This helps explain why course history has not been predictive here over the years. You’ll notice that most of the golfers in the field have very mixed course history.
For this week, I’m looking for golfers who fit the course well, have had success in Florida and ones who have a good track record in strong fields.
I have four outright bets on my card this week. Let’s dive into the picks.
Schauffele is not a popular pick in the betting community. He often gets labeled as a golfer who never wins, even though he has seven victories on the PGA Tour.
He hasn’t won since 2022 (when he won back-to-back events), but has been a top-10 machine ever since. He already has four top-10 finishes this year.
If a golfer is in contention enough, he’s eventually going to break through with a win.
Capable of scoring in every strokes-gained category, Schauffele doesn’t have a weakness in his game. He finished second at The Players in 2018. I’m betting he’ll be in the mix Sunday.
Hovland has not been in the best of form this season. His ball-striking hasn’t been as crisp and he’s back to struggling around the greens.
While not ideal, he’s still one of the best ball-strikers in the field. More importantly, he’s one of the best in the world on the four Florida courses and has back-to-back top-10 finishes at The Players.
If he’s able to have a ceiling week with his ball-striking, he won’t need to scramble very often.
The bad form has led to a bigger number in the outright market, as he would likely be in the +1500 range if he was playing a little better heading into the week.
In a year of long-shot winners, it’s not crazy to think Henley could contend this week.
TPC Sawgrass requires accuracy off the tee and elite iron play. Those are the exact strengths of Henley’s game.
He’s coming off a T-4 finish last week at Bay Hill (which wasn’t a great course fit for him) and he’s finished in the top 20 at this event in each of the last two years.
He’s always had good hands around the green and he’s been putting well in 2024.
Fleetwood has never won on the PGA Tour. He also put a 10 on the scorecard last week at Bay Hill.
Prior to that, however, he was in excellent form and even picked up a win in Dubai earlier this year.
He’s a good total driver of the ball, he’s always been an excellent iron player, and he has an elite short game.
It’s easy to see why he’s been able to play so well in Florida in his career.
