Cognizant Classic 2024 Best Bets, One-And-Done Pick
After getting my brains beat in to start the PGA Tour 2024, I got off the mat last week by cashing my 1st pre-tournament outright bet of the season with Jake Knapp at the Mexico Open at 40-to-1 odds! It was a crucial win that added +16.95 units (u) to my bankroll, but I'm still -11.58u in the PGA Tour 2024 season. Regardless, I have momentum heading into the Florida Swing's 1st event: Cognizant Classic 2024 in The Palm Beaches at PGA National (The Champion).
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The Cognizant Classic has a 144-golfer field with a 36-hole cut of the top 65 players including ties. There is a $9 million prize pool with the winner getting $1,620,000. This used to be called "The Honda Classic" but the Japanese automobile company pulled its sponsorship, probably because this event had one of the weakest fields on Tour annually.
But, World No. 2, and 2012 Honda Classic champion, Rory McIlroy headlines a halfway decent field. Former winners of this event — Chris Kirk (2023), Sepp Straka (2022), Sungjae Im (2020), Keith Mitchell (2019), and Rickie Fowler (2017) — are teeing it up this week. World No. 9 Matthew Fitzpatrick, No. 16 Tom Kim, and No. 23 Cameron Young are also in the field.
The other courses in the Florida Swing are Bay Hill Club and Lodge for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, TPC Sawgrass for THE PLAYERS Championship, and Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead course) for the Valspar Championship. All four are difficult courses with Bermuda grass greens.
Besides the Florida Swing, I’m comparing PGA National to the Muirfield Village Golf Club for the Memorial Tournament and TPC Southwind for the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Those are difficult courses with a lot of water danger.
Anyhow, my gambling strategy is to profit 20u for every outright golf winner bet. I'll back that golfer in a placement market (top-5, -10, or -20 finishes) to earn 1u on top of the outright wager. Since BetMGM is the only sportsbook that pays ties in full, that's where I'll make my placement bets.
Cognizant Classic 2024 ‘Horses for the Course’
- Stats courtesy of Bet The Number from the Tour Junkies, Fantasy National by Pat Mayo, and the PGA Tour.
Keith Mitchell
Cashmere Keith’s only PGA Tour win was the then-Honda Classic 2019. Mitchell has gained strokes on the greens at PGA National in all five starts. Keith was a career-best +4.7 Strokes Gained (SG): Putting in his last start at the Honda in 2022 when he finished T9.
Mitchell is 1st in my 20-round model at Bet the Number including 2nd in SG: Approach (APP) and 3rd in success rate when "going for the green". The chaos at PGA National creates difficult shots. I like that Keith has been aggressive on his APP shots in the green.
He has only shot over-par once in his 21 rounds on the PGA Tour in 2024. Even in Mitchell's lone missed cut this season at the Farmers Insurance Open, he shot under par in the 1st two rounds. It just wasn’t good enough to make the cut. Keith opened last week’s Mexico Open with three straight bogeys then rallied back to finish Even in Round 1.
Keith was very popular in the golf betting community last week. His T19 at the Mexico Open might keep bettors off Mitchell at the Cognizant Classic. But, he’s got the ball-striking, recent form, and course history to contend at PGA National this week.
The first thoroughbred for PGA National: Keith Mitchell
- Win: +4000 at FanDuel (0.5u to win 20u)
- Top-20: +175 at BetMGM (0.87u to win 1.5u)
Daniel Berger
The 4-time PGA Tour champion was sidelined with a back injury from June 2022 until the American Express 2024 in January. Berger showed enough form in his third start back with a T28 at the 2024 WM Phoenix Open. He finished solo 4th and T4 over his last two starts at this event in 2022 and 2020 and a solo 2nd in 2015.
Berger’s lowball flight is a good fit for PGA National because of the high winds. He is 2nd in this field for total SG in windy weather conditions. Adding to that, Daniel has gained strokes on the greens in six of his seven career starts at the Champions course including five straight. Berger lost in a playoff as a rookie with 100-to-1 odds to Padraig Harrington in the Honda Classic 2015.
He won the St. Jude in back-to-back years from 2016-17 and finished T2 in 2020 and T5 in 2021. The St. Jude is played at TPC Southwind, which is a crossover course for this event. With that in mind, Berger is 2nd in total SG at comp courses to PGA National.
Daniel had the 2nd-best odds to win this event in 2022 at +1600. This tournament had a stronger field that year because there was no LIV Tour. Eventually, his odds will compare to his pre-injury days and I like betting Berger while he’s still relatively cheap. Per my 75-round model at Fantasy National, Berger is the 2nd-best golfer in this field. He is 1st in SG: APP and 3rd in SG: Ball-Striking over that span.
The second thoroughbred for PGA National: Daniel Berger
- Win: +4000 at FanDuel (0.5u to win 20u)
- Top-20: +175 at BetMGM (0.87u to win 1.5u)
Adam Svensson
Even though every Canadian PGA Tour professional chokes when I bet them, I’ll take Svensson at this price. Svensson finished T10 in his last start, the 2024 Genesis Invitational, while picking up more than two strokes in all key categories except putting. He grades 8th in this field over the last 24 rounds in my Fantasy National model and 7th over the last 40 rounds in my Bet The Number model.
Over the last 24 rounds, Svensson is 9th in SG: APP and APP from 175-200 yards. Svensson doesn’t have a lot of power off-the-tee but he’s 10th in driving accuracy over the last 40 rounds. Svensson has picked up strokes with his irons and tee-to-green in all three starts in this event. He tied for 49th at PGA National last season with a T9 in 2022 and a T59 in 2019.
The third thoroughbred for PGA National: Adam Svensson
- Win: +5500 at BetMGM (0.36u to win 20u)
- Top-20: +200 at BetMGM (0.68u to win 1.36u)
Tom Hoge
Hello Tom Hoge, my old friend. I’ve come to bet you again. I "fired a single bullet" on Hoge in my 1st tournament betting the PGA Tour weekly, which was the 2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. My only bets were for Hoge to win (+5000), to place top-20 (+260), and beat Denny McCarthy in a tournament head-to-head matchup (-130).
Lo and behold, Hoge won the damn thing and I fell in love with betting on golf. I’m seeing similar stuff from Hoge going into this week’s Cognizant as I did for Pebble Beach in February 2022. Furthermore, he’s in great form.
This month, Hoge finished T6 at Pebble Beach, T17 at the WM Phoenix Open, and T8 at the Genesis Invitational. Pebble Beach and the Genesis are "signature events" while the Phoenix Open favors bombers. His T17 in Phoenix is encouraging since Hoge’s worst club is the driver.
Hoge is leading the field in Strokes Gained (SG): Approach (APP) over the last 40 rounds with PGA Tour shot-link data, per my Bet The Number model. Most of the APP shots at PGA National are from 150-200 yards. Hoge is 1st for this field in APP shots from 175-200 yards and 10th from 150-175 over the last 40 rounds.
For his career, Tom is a so-so putter. Technically, he is -0.1 SG: Putting per event in 247 career starts, per Fantasy National. But, over his last four starts, Hoge is +1.2 SG: Putting, +3.2, +2.1, and +0.8. Plus, Tom ranks 20th in this field in SG: Putting on Bermuda grass greens over the last 50 rounds, per Bet The Number.
Also, Hoge shot a course-record 62 (-10) at TPC Sawgrass in THE PLAYERS Championship last year. TPC Sawgrass is another Florida course with similarities to PGA National. He went on to finish T3 but no one was catching Scottie Scheffler who won THE PLAYERS at -17.
Yet, that had a much tougher field and Hoge was -1.5 SG: Putting that week. If Tom is dialed in with the irons and putts like has been recently, Hoge can win the 2024 Cognizant Classic.
The fourth thoroughbred for PGA National: Tom Hoge
- Win: +5500 at BetMGM (0.36u to win 20u)
- Top-20: +225 at BetMGM (0.61u to win 1.36u)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Bezuidenhout’s two biggest weaknesses are driving and chipping. But, he doesn’t need to be good at those things to contend at PGA National. Bezuidenhout is 4th on Tour this season in SG: APP and he averages +1.7 SG: Putting per event in 78 career starts. Over the last 24 rounds with PGA Tour shot-link data, Christiaan leads the field in Par 4 scoring.
His only missed cut in the last 10 starts dating back to the FedEx Fall schedule is the Farmers Insurance Open last month, which is played on a "driver-heavy" course. Otherwise, Bezuidenhout has played well since October. The South African has four top-10s over that span: Two on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour.
Bezuidenhout made the cut at PGA National in his only two starts over the past two seasons. Christiaan tied for 24th in the Genesis Invitational two weeks ago, which is a respectable finish considering it’s a "signature event" with a stacked field. Bezuidenhout was +3.2 SG: APP and +2.9 SG: Putting at the 2024 Genesis.
The fifth thoroughbred for PGA National: Christiaan Bezuidenhout
- Win: +6000 at FanDuel (0.33u to win 20u)
- Top-20: +225 at BetMGM (0.59u to win 1.36u)
Cognizant Classic 2024 'One-And-Done' Pick: Tom Hoge
Through the first seven events of the 2024 Mayo Cup (the One-And-Done contest I entered this season), I'm tied for 1,642nd place out of 4,400 entries with $1,402,480 collected.
- J.T. Poston for the Sony Open: 6th for $300,875
- Xander Schauffele for the American Express: T3 for $635,600
- Sahith Theegala for the Farmers Insurance Open: T64 for $19,080
- Jordan Spieth for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: T39 for $70,125
- Tom Kim for the WM Phoenix Open: T17 for $125,400
- Collin Morikawa for the Genesis Invitational: T19 for $251,400
- Taylor Pendrith for the Mexico Open: Missed cut for $0
There are better guys to use here instead of Tom Hoge. He's missed the cut at this event in four straight starts and finished T37 in his other start here. Other options include Russell Henley, Fitzpatrick, Kim(whom I already used at the Phoenix Open), and Young.
That said, I'm just feeling good about Hoge's chances at PGA National this week. Hoge is dialed in with his irons and putting his a** off lately. Lastly, I need to make up ground on the contest after Pendrith missed the cut at the Mexico Open.
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