Plenty to Gain by backing Real in strong Darley Stakes

GUESSING how much rain might fall at Newmarket this weekend isn’t easy and if the upper levels of what is forecast hits Cambridgeshire, then connections of the heavy odds-on Dewhurst Stakes (2.00pm) favourite City Of Troy may be forced to reconsider their plans. 

Aidan O’Brien has already said on record that he won’t risk the son of Justify on soft ground and I was seriously tempted to recommend a speculative bet on stablemate Henry Longfellow at 12/1.

He’d start closer to 3/1 if he was to be subbed in to run instead of the favourite, however, the most likely scenario is still that City Of Troy starts and I prefer to look at the Darley Stakes (3.50pm) for this week’s ante-post bet.

The betting is headed by the ultra-consistent Spirit Dancer who hasn’t been seen since completing a hat-trick in the Strensall Stakes at York.

Highland Avenue has become a bit disappointing, while Regal Reality and Sir Busker are a little long in the tooth.

Three-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals and Knight looks the most likely of that generation.

There was talk of a Classic campaign after his Horris Hill victory 12 months ago, but things haven’t gone to script this season.

That said, he has run well in defeat on both his last two runs and will relish any rain that falls.

However, I was really taken with the performance of REAL GAIN over course and distance a fortnight ago when the son of Profitable bolted up in a handicap.

He jumps into Group company here but showed a lovely attitude that day and will stay even further than this in time.

The 7/1 on offer with William Hill looks more than fair at this early stage.

POINTERS

Real Gain    e/w                            3.50pm                  Newmarket (Saturday)