Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 preview: Odds and Betting Tips
DUSTING POIRIER vs. Justin Gaethje 2 is a rematch fans have been waiting for ever since they put on a blood-filled slugfest back in 2018.
Poirier ended it with punches after four rounds on that occasion, but can he do it again in Utah on July 30? The bookmakers seem to have an idea, so let’s take a look at the latest UFC 291 betting odds and how this BMF battle could go down…
Latest odds for Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje fight
The best UFC 291 odds for Justin Gaethje vs. Dustin Poirier II at our top-rated UK online sports betting sites are:
- Poirier - 4/6 at bet365
- Gaethje - 13/10 at BetUK
Top bookies for UFC fight night betting
Find the selection of the best bookies for odds and promotions for the Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 matchup:
What to expect from Dustin Poirier?
Dustin Poirier is the proverbial renaissance man when it comes to MMA. No, we don’t mean he spends his days painting and pondering the meaning of life. Renaissance is French for “rebirth” and Poirier’s career has gone through many different iterations. From up-and-comer to contender, champion down to a gatekeeper, the man from Louisiana has occupied every position on the lightweight division’s roster.
The latest version of Dustin Poirier is, perhaps, the best of all. He lost to former champion Charles Oliveira back in December 2021 but, other than that result, he’s won four of his last five. Among the names on Poirier’s hit list are Dan Hooker, Conor McGregor and Michael Chandler. While one result against McGregor could be disputed, the rest were impressive performances against the division’s best.
Poirier dominated Chandler for much of their fight at UFC 281 and got the finish with a choke. This could be a key factor to consider if you’re betting on UFC 291. Gaethje, like Chandler, is a wrestler. Although he prefers to stand and bang, grappling is his foundation. Poirier may look to exploit this like he did against Chandler, another wrestler who now prefers to stand up.
What to expect from Justin Gaethje?
If ever there was a UFC fighter made for the BMF championship belt, it’s Justin Gaethje. The American wrestler turned elite-level brawler knows how to throw punches (and kicks) as well as take them. He’s a one-man wrecking machine and, when he’s on form, he’s almost unstoppable. That makes him a BMF.
His come forward style of fighting certainly gets the crowd going, but it doesn’t always yield the right result. Gaethje has won three of his last five, which isn’t awful considering his two losses were to Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira. What may be significant, however, is that his recent wins may not be as impressive as Poirier’s. We’re not saying they’re poor. It’s tough to beat anyone in the UFC but, when you compare Poirier’s record to Gaethje’s, the former is superior.
The UFC 291 odds suggest the bookmakers share this opinion. We can also point to a common opponent: Michael Chandler. Both men beat Chandler, but Poirier did it before the final bell, while Gaethje got the decision. Could this be another clue as to how the rematch will go down in Salt Lake City?
Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 betting tips and odds
OK, so we now know Gaethje vs. Poirier II is going to be a barnstormer. We’ve also given you some fight insights ahead of Gaethje vs. Poirier II on July 30. Now, for all of you wanting to bet on the action, here are three UFC betting tips and the best odds at our recommended UK sports betting sites.
Fight to go distance
Our first UFC 291 betting tip goes against conventional wisdom in some respects. Even though Poirier and Gaethje have gone the distance in multiple fights, their last encounter ended in the fourth round. This suggests someone will get the win before the final bell. However, we also know both fighters are older and wiser, which tells us they might have more conservative gameplans.
Poirier to win by KO/TKO/DQ
Poirier won with TKO before, so there’s no reason he couldn’t win like this again. We’re certain Gaethje learned a thing or two from the previous fight, so he’ll come into the rematch with a slightly different gameplan. However, he also has more miles on the clock and even the toughest chins don’t hold up forever. Therefore, if you’re betting on Poirier vs. Gaethje 2, the former winning by KO/TKO/DQ could be a good bet.
Gaethje to win by submission
Our UFC 291 wild card bet is for Gaethje to get the most takedowns or win by submission. Based on his record, this is certainly a longshot. However, Gaethje is a strong wrestler. We also know he lost by strikes last time out. So, if he implements a different strategy for the rematch, we could see him revert to his wrestling roots and shoot for more takedowns.
How to place a bet on Poirier vs. Gaethje
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What’s the weight category of the Poirier vs. Gaethje UFC fight?
The Poirier vs. Gaethje Two UFC showdown in Salt Lake City will take place at lightweight. This means both men will weigh in at 155lb. As well as fighting for their place in the lightweight rankings, Gaethje vs. Poirier will be for the UFC BMF belt. What’s the UFC BMF belt? It’s an honour given to the baddest motherfu**er in the sport.
What happened last time Poirier and Gaethje fought?
The rematch between Poirier and Gaethje looks set to be another violent encounter. The previous bout saw Gaethje rush Poirier early and land crippling leg kicks. In fact, it looked like Poirier would buckle under the early pressure. However, he bided his time and eventually created some distance.
That distance allowed Poirier to keep Gaethje at bay with stinging jabs. This ability to land cleaner shots ultimately won Poirier the fight. It was tough. It was messy and, at times, it was gruelling. Gaethje never stopped coming forward but, in the end, he could only take so much punishment. He proved he’s a BMF, but Poirier proved he’s also a BMF but with slicker striking.
In the end, Poirier threw a big left hand that wobbled Gaethje in the fourth round. He instantly poured on the pressure, and, after a devastating barrage, referee Herb Dean stepped in to save Gaethje from his own toughness.
Who has more KOs in their career, Dustin Poirier or Justin Gaethje?
Justin Gaethje has more KO/TKO wins than Dustin Poirier ahead of UFC 291 in Salt Lake City. The raw numbers are 19 KO/TKO wins for Gaethje, and 14 KO/TKO wins for Poirier. However, the more pertinent fact is that Gaethje’s KOs/TKOs account for 79% of his victories. Therefore, despite being a decorated wrestler, Gaethje has built his pro MMA career on thunderous kicks and punches.
Which fighter has more wins by submission, Dustin Poirier or Justin Gaethje?
Dustin Poirier has eight times the number of submissions on his record than Justin Gaethje. Of Poirier’s 36 professional fights, eight wins (28%) have come via submission. In fact, ahead of the rematch against Gaethje, Poirier got his 29 pro victory via rear naked-choke. Gaethje has just one submission win as a pro heading into UFC 291.
Who has more professional matches, Poirier or Gaethje?
Dustin Poirier is the more experienced of the two men when it comes to professional MMA matches. Heading into his July 30 BMF title fight with Justin Gaethje, Poirier had 36 fights on his record, with 29 wins and seven losses. Gaethje has 24 wins and four losses for a total of 28 fights.
Who has won more titles, Dustin Poirier or Justin Gaethje?
Justin Gaethje has more MMA titles than Dustin Poirier. Both have held the UFC Lightweight Championship interim title, but neither could convert that into the full honour. In fact, Poirier has fought for the UFC Lightweight title twice but came up short on both occasions.
Gaethje’s other MMA title came outside of the UFC in the World Series of Fighting (WSOP). He won the inaugural WSOF Lightweight Championship title in 2014 after beating Richard Patishnock. He defended the title five times before vacating and moving to the UFC.
One thing we can’t forget, of course, is that Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 is for the BMF title. It’s not an official Ultimate Fighting Championship title, but it’s a belt the most violent men (and women) want. Neither fighter has held the BMF title, so UFC 291 will have some extra spice when the punches start flying.
Who is more likely to get KO’d, Poirier or Gaethje?
Picking between Poirier and Gaethje is tough because both men are durable. They might not be one-punch knockout artists, but the two men have combinations that can put anyone away. Therefore, if we’re painting with broad strokes, either man could get knocked out.
Having said this, Gaethje does have 19 wins by KO/TKO from his 28 fights. In contrast, 14 of Poirier’s 29 wins are by KO or TKO. Delving deeper into the fight stats, Gaethje throws more strikes per round and has an accuracy rate of 60%, while Poirier lands 50% of his significant strikes. The problem for Gaethje, however, is that he absorbs 7.66 significant strikes per minute. That’s almost double the number Poirier takes. Therefore, it may be a case of who’s chin holds out the longest.
Which fighter has been more active recently, Poirier or Gaethje?
Justin Gaethje has been more active than Dustin Poirier. Gaethje last entered the Octagon in March 2023 when he got a decision win over Rafael Fiziev. Poirier last fought back in November 2022 when he got a third-round victory over Michael Chandler.
Are there any undercard fights that you should pay attention to?
The main event of UFC 291 has piqued everyone’s attention, but it’s not the only fight in town. Indeed, with former middleweight champion Alex Pereira making his light heavyweight debut, there are plenty of other fantastic fights to focus on. Looking down the UFC fight card, these are some of dust ups set to impress in Salt Lake City:
- Jan Blachowicz vs. Alex Pereira
- Stephen Thompson vs. Michael Pereira
- Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green
- Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Holland
How to watch UFC291
You can watch Justin Gaethje vs. Dustin Poirier II, as well as the rest of the UFC fight card, including Jan Blachowicz vs. Alex Pereira, in the following way:
- Location: Delta Center, Salt Lake City, Utah
- Date and time: Sun, Jul 30 / 3:00 am GMT+1
- TV/Streaming: TNT Sports (formerly BT Sport) or UFC Fight Pass
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