UFC 291: Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje Picks and Predictions

In the UFC 291 main event, Dustin Poirier takes on Justin Gaethje five years removed from their first fight which was won by Poirier. Will Gaethje be able to exact revenge? Our UFC expert believes it's possible.

Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje is the main event for UFC 291 betting from the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. This will be for the symbolic BMF belt between two of the most entertaining fighters on the planet and will also be a rematch from 2018 when Poirier beat Gaethje by TKO in a bout that earned Fight of the Night honors.

Oddsmakers are expecting a similar result on Saturday with UFC odds opening with Poirier as a slim -125 favorite before growing to -150. Here are my best free UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 picks and predictions for July 29.

Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje fight odds

Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje method of victory odds

Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje betting preview

Dustin "The Diamond" Poirier is the No. 2 ranked lightweight contender, sitting just one spot ahead of Gaethje. He's coming off a third-round submission victory against Michael Chandler last November which improved his record to 4-1 in his last five fights.

Poirier has been competing in the UFC since 2011, compiling a 21-6 record in the octagon and picking up 13 performance bonuses.  The 34-year-old is a complete fighter who combines some of the best technical boxing in the promotion with good grappling ability. 

Since the previous fight between these two, both fighters have gone 6-2 in the octagon. The similarities don't stop there, with both of their defeats during that span coming by submission in title fights against Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira.

In Justin "The Highlight" Gaethje's most recent bout, he defeated Rafael Fiziev by majority decision in March to earn Performance of the Night honors.  The 34-year-old is an aggressive fighter that loves to throw down and he has earned a performance bonus in nine of 11 career UFC bouts.

Despite having a background as an All-American wrestler, Gaethje rarely utilizes his wrestling except to defend against takedowns. He prefers to rely on his striking where he attacks his opponents with leg kicks and heavy hands.

Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje tale of the tape

Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje UFC prediction and best bet

Fight prediction: Gaethje 

The first showdown between these two saw Gaethje batter Poirier with leg kicks while Poirier pieced up Gaethje with boxing combinations. In the fourth round, Poirier ate another leg kick but traded back with an overhand left that stunned Gaethje and he followed up with a flurry of punches that finished him.

That was just the third fight in Gaethje's UFC career and he was fresh off a knockout loss to Eddie Alvarez. Since then, Gaethje has become a more patient and calculated fighter, while sharpening his footwork and upgrading his defense. 

While Poirier has also improved, he's still more-or-less the same fighter he was at the time. Another factor that could play a role is the high elevation at Salt Lake City with Gaethje used to training in Denver which is at an even higher altitude. That said, I do think that advantage might not be as stark as some fans and pundits seem to think.

Cardio has never really been an issue for Poirier and he arrived in Utah a while ago and has been preparing for these conditions. Also, keep in mind that Salt Lake City isn't that much higher than Calgary where Poirier knocked out Alvarez and claimed a POTN bonus in 2018. 

Regardless of the elevation, I think this fight should be closer to a pick'em and will lean towards Gaethje on the moneyline since he has made bigger strides since the first matchup. 

Prediction: Gaethje (+130 DraftKings)

Fight best bet: Fight to start Round 3

Although I don't think the elevation will give Gaethje a big edge in this fight, I do think it will affect the pace of this bout with both fighters looking to conserve their energy in the early going.

These guys do have plenty of finishes on their resume but with the exception of clashes against reckless fighters like Michael Chandler and Charles Oliveira, they tend to break down opponents over time. 

The first clash between these two went into the fourth round and that was with Gaethje displaying poor striking defense and Poirier not checking leg kicks — areas they have both improved in. 

Seven of Poirier's last 10 fights have gone until at least the third round while three of Gaethje's last five fights have gone the full 15 minutes. Both of these fighters are durable, with solid defense and good recoverability even when they do get hit hard. That combined with the high elevation should see this bout last until at least the third round.  

Pick: Fight to start Round 3 (-144 at FanDuel)