UFC 291: Poirier vs Gaethje 2 Fight Prediction, Odds & Picks

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25 July 2023

UFC 291: Poirier vs Gaethje 2 Fight Prediction, Odds & Picks

UFC 291 is less than a week away from taking place at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. Saturday night’s action-packed card is going to be headlined by a massive showdown between former interim lightweight champions Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje.

Poirier and Gaethje share history after previously clashing at UFC on Fox 29 just over five years ago. Once the dust cleared, Poirier stood victorious after taking Gaethje out with knockout a punch in the fourth round. Still to this day that fight has been heralded as one of the best bouts that the lightweight division has ever seen.

Betting News has put together a Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 preview, ranging from each fighter’s history to the latest betting odds (via BetOnline) and best bets for the UFC 291 main event.

Poirier vs Gaethje 2 Tale of the Tape

Dustin Poirier — Justin Gaethje

Record: 29-7, 1NC — 24-4
Height: 5’9” — 5’11”
Reach: 72” — 70”
Weight: 155lbs — 155lbs
Age: 34 — 34
Fighting Stance: Southpaw — Orthodox
Knockouts: 14 — 19

UFC 291: Poirier vs Gaethje 2 Odds (as of Tuesday, July 25 at 8:27 a.m.)

Moneyline

Dustin Poirier -158
Justin Gaethje +138

Will the Fight Go the Distance?

Round Total

Over 2.5 Rounds (-135)
Under 2.5 Rounds (+105)

Poirier vs Gaethje 2 Fighter History

BetOnline is currently backing Poirier to, once again, defeat Gaethje at UFC 291. The “Diamond” is available at -158 moneyline odds to win, which carries an implied probability of 61.2%.

Poirier has been putting on a show throughout the years. The Lafayette, Louisiana native is a solid 8-2 in his last 10 fights, which includes his aforementioned victory over Gaethje. A lot occurred over that stretch, ranging from an interim UFC Lightweight Championship reign to Poirier finishing six opponents (four by KO/TKO, two by submission).

After back-to-back TKO wins over Conor McGregor, Poirier challenged Charles Oliveira for the lightweight title at UFC 269. Unfortunately, Poirier came up short as he lost by first-round submission. He pushed himself forward after tasting defeat, though, submitting Michael Chandler in what was deemed the ‘fight of the night’ at UFC 281.

On the other, Gaethje has fought to mixed results since last meeting Poirier. The loss didn’t keep him down for too long as he won the four subsequent fights in a row, knocking out the quartet of fighters with three of those victories occurring in Round 1.

Unfortunately, he hasn’t gotten much going since then. Gaethje has now gone 2-2 since that winning streak with those two losses coming against Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira with the lightweight title on the line.

Nevertheless, Gaethje proved his fortitude by bouncing back from both losses with a victory, most recently beating Rafael Fiziev by majority decision at UFC 286.

MMA fans can expect a hard-hitting contest at UFC 291. Poirier and Gaethje aren’t afraid to throw out blows, landing 5.51 and 7.38 significant strikes per minute, respectively. Having said that, Gaethje absorbs a lot more significant strikes (7.66) than his opponent (4.25).

Poirier has the grappling advantage here, averaging 1.39 takedowns and 1.2 submissions per 15 minutes. While Gaethje has 75% takedown defense, his accuracy only sits at 25%.

UFC 291 Betting Trends and Markets for Poirier vs Gaethje 2

The odds are fairly close for the UFC 291 main event, meaning there isn’t anything wrong with a moneyline bet. At the same time, BetOnline has a wide selection of Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 markets that provide even more value.

For instance, the sportsbook expects some form of finish, favoring that the fight won’t go the distance at -220 odds. This isn’t too surprising given that only two of Poirier’s last 11 fights have gone the distance while two of Gaethje’s previous 15 have done so.

BetOnline is also favoring history to repeat itself in Salt Lake City, favoring Poirier to win via KO/TKO (+170). The talented striker has racked up 14 knockout victories over the years, including two in his last four fights.

On the flip side, Gaethje’s likeliest victory method is also winning by knockout, albeit at +265 odds. Although the “Highlight” has tallied 19 of his 24 career wins by KO/TKO, he hasn’t knocked anyone out since May 2020 — a span of four fights.

Something that’s interesting is that while the fight is favored to last longer than 2.5 rounds (-135), Poirier is favored to win by first-round knockout at +600. Of his 14 knockout wins over the years, a whopping 11 have occurred in the opening frame.

UFC 291: Poirier vs Gaethje 2 Fight Prediction

The UFC 291 headlining act will be a memorable one and I’m taking Poirier to win it all. He’s already beaten Gaethje once and has the better striking defense to survive a full-on brawl. Throw in the fact that he’s also been the more consistent fighter lately and I like Poirier’s odds of beating Gaethje to move one step closer to a potential lightweight title shot down the road.

As for the best bet, I’ll take Poirier to win by KO/TKO (+170). Again, these are two fighters who don’t mind fighting to the very end, which means we can expect a finish. Poirier hits harder and knows how to find a weak spot to exploit. Gaethje will put up a fight, but history has shown that Poirier just needs one opening to end things in a flash.

UFC 291 Event Details

When is UFC 291?

UFC 291 will take place on Saturday, July 29, 2023.

Where is UFC 291?

UFC 291 will take place at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah.

What time does UFC 291 start?

UFC 291 Early Prelims Card: 6:30 p.m. ET
UFC 291 Preliminary Card Start Time: 8 p.m. ET
Start Time of UFC 291’s Main Card: 10 p.m. ET

How can I watch UFC 291?

The early prelims action can be viewed through the UFC Fight Pass. Following that, the UFC 291 preliminary card airs on both ABC and ESPN before the main card takes place on ESPN+ and through pay-per-view providers.