Porto vs Arsenal tips & Champions League predictions
The Portuguese’s record at this round isn’t much better, bowing out eight times in total, while they’ve lost seven out of eight Champions League knockout ties against English opposition.
But Sergio Conceicao’s men are a tough nut to crack at the Estadio Do Dragao, tougher than the Champions League odds for this game suggest, and they may have enough about them to end Arsenal’s winning run.
Porto no pushovers at home
UK bookmakers like the Gunners’ chances of going deep into this year’s tournament and make them third favourites to win a first Champions League title on their return to the competition after seven years away.
They made light work of the group stage, finishing top of their section with four wins from six games. Arteta’s men were ruthless in north London, dispatching PSV Eindhoven, Lens and Sevilla with relative ease with an average of four goals per game at the Emirates Stadium.
However, performances on the road were a little less convincing with Arsenal slipping to defeat at Lens and being held to a 1-1 draw in Eindhoven.
It’s tough to argue that the Gunners have been a bit vulnerable on the road this season when they’ve won their last two away games 6-0 and 5-0 at West Ham and Burnley, but they’ve been frustrated by well-organised teams at times this season.
Porto fit that bill. They have the second best defensive record in Portugal and have gone five home games without conceding in the lead up to this first leg.
The Dragons' home record in the Champions League is decent with 11 wins in the last 20 games, including victories over Antwerp and Shakhtar Donetsk in this season’s group stage.
That helped the Portuguese finish second in their group, behind Barcelona, who did win at the Estadio Do Dragao but were made to work for the victory.
Porto’s chances of an upset haven’t been helped by injuries to Zaidu Sanusi and star striker Mehdi Taremi, but Conceicao and the majority of his remaining players have enough European experience under their belt to cope without the duo.
Arsenal’s previous history at this stage of the competition probably doesn’t count for a lot in the context of the tie, but we have seen this group find it tricky playing away in Europe, and not just this season.
A strong Gunners team were held to a 2-2 draw by Sporting in the first leg of their Europa League last 16 tie last season and they return to Portugal without Gabriel Jesus, who was so important to them in the group stages and has an excellent Champions League record.
Given Arsenal’s recent form, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they won on Wednesday. But winning on the road in the knockout stages of the Champions League is tough and it may pay to take the bigger price on Porto avoiding defeat in the double chance market on betting apps.
Tough to stop Saka
No one has been involved in more Champions League goals this season than the seven managed by Bukayo Saka (three goals, four assists) and Betway’s decision to boost his price to score or assist anytime is, therefore, a good opportunity to ponder.
Most firms have the Arsenal ace at odds-on to register his eighth European goal contribution, but Betway are offering 11/10 on him maintaining his recent hot streak.
Saka has scored six goals in his last four appearances for Arsenal, bagging a brace at Burnley, while he’s contributed to a goal in six of his last seven outings in all competitions.
The 22-year-old has hit double figures for both goals (15) and assists (12) this season and he’s a big reason why Arsenal’s attack has been so effective of late.
Porto won’t make it easy for Arsenal to maintain their record of scoring in 15 straight Champions League games, but if anyone can unlock the Portuguese’s defence, it’s Saka.
Keep an eye on Evanilson
Porto’s attack will miss the physical presence of Taremi should he have to sit out this game through injury, but they have a few other tricks up their sleeve.
Pepe, not the 40-year-old ex-Real Madrid defender who now plays at Porto, but the tricky Brazilian, and Wenderson Galeno will test Arsenal’s defence, but the main threat may come from Evanilson.
Evanilson is enjoying an excellent season for Porto, netting 19 goals in all competitions, including four in the Champions League. He’s been in decent scoring form of late, scoring five in his last six Portuguese league games.
Having been a little erratic with his shooting earlier in the season, he’s now finding the target more regularly and has had a shot find its mark in six of his last seven league outings.
West Ham and Burnley barely laid a glove on Arsenal recently but Porto should stretch them more and Evanilson could lead the charge. He’s 1/1 to have a shot on target with Sporting Index, which looks a good price, potentially, given his recent form.
Get free bets for the Champions League
Wednesday marks the halfway point in the Champions League round of 16, but there's still a long way to go before June's final at Wembley and plenty of opportunities to earn some free bets to use on the competition.
By opening an account with new betting sites, you can unlock free bets, such as with BoyleSports, who have enhanced their sign-up offer for the Porto vs Arsenal game.
They are giving new customers a £30 welcome bonus, consisting of £20 in free bets to use on the sportsbook and a £10 bonus to wager at their UK online casino. On top of that, BoyleSports are boosting the price on Arsenal to win, both teams to score and Saka to score first against Porto to 20/1 for new users.
Users who click the link below will be opted into the promotion. They'll then need to deposit a minimum of £10 and wager £10 on a bet at odds of evens or greater. The welcome bonus will be applied to the account within five minutes of the qualifying bet being settled.
Remember to check the terms and conditions on any welcome offer before signing up and if you have a bet on the Champions League, always gamble responsibly.
Chris is an experienced sports betting writer who has worked with most major bookmakers and national media outlets, such as Racing Post and ITN. He covers a wide range of sports with his favourites being NFL, rugby, football and Formula 1.
