Porto vs Arsenal predictions: Champions League tips and odds

Our betting expert has three Porto vs Arsenal tips for Wednesday’s Champions League round-of-16, first-leg match at the Estadio Do Dragao (kick-off, 8pm GMT). Scroll down for the analysis behind his selections.

Porto vs Arsenal betting tips

• Porto or draw – double chance @ 11/10 with Paddy Power
• Francisco Conceicao to be carded @ 12/5 with Paddy Power
• Bet builder: Galeno to score, over 4.5 Arsenal corners, over 2.5 Porto corners @ 15/1 with Paddy Power

Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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Home side worth chancing

Arsenal went out of the Champions League at this stage in each of their previous seven campaigns in the competition – from 2011 to 2017 – and may struggle to earn a first-leg advantage in Portugal.

Porto have won eight and drawn one of their previous nine home matches in all competitions, keeping a clean sheet in the last five of those, and Arsenal have a poor record in previous Champions League matches in the city, racking up one goalless draw and two defeats from three visits. 

The Gunners may have won 6-0 and 5-0 in their previous two away games at West Ham and Burnley, but they have lost five times on their travels this season, including a 2-1 loss at Lens in the group stage. We think Porto are worth backing in the double chance market to win or draw the first leg.

Porto vs Arsenal tip 1: Porto or draw – double chance @ 11/10 with Paddy Power

Caution can pay with Conceicao

There looks to be some value in backing Porto winger Francisco Conceicao to find his way into the book, for which he is priced at 12/5.

The Portugal Under-21 star has received eight yellows in the league this season, the most of anyone in Porto’s squad, and he has a habit of putting in niggly fouls that attract the referee’s attention.

Conceicao has also been booked once in the Champions League and he is a tempting price to fall foul of the officials again.

Porto vs Arsenal tip 2: Francisco Conceicao to be carded @ 12/5 with Paddy Power

Corners and goals underpin bet builder

Using Paddy Power’s bet-builder feature, you can combine a couple of markets and three selections to create a 15/1 multiple for Wednesday’s Champions League clash.

Porto’s star man in Europe this term has been Brazilian winger Galeno, who has four goals and three assists in his five Champions League appearances. 

Galeno scored in Porto’s last match and also bagged two in their previous Champions League game, so take him to score even if Arsenal dominate passages of play.

Mikel Arteta loves his side to keep the ball and as a result the Gunners could rack up a decent tally of corners in Portugal.

They have earned six in each of their previous two games and five in two of their three away group stage matches, so backing Arsenal to rack up over 4.5 corners looks a solid selection.

Sticking in the same market to round out the bet builder, backing the hosts to earn over 2.5 corners could pay dividends.

Porto earned at least three corners in five of their six group stage games – including five and six in their defeats by Barcelona. They registered eight in their 2-0 win over Estrela on Saturday, suggesting they should have no issues in managing over 2.5 in a tie with Arsenal that they may go on to win.

Porto vs Arsenal tip 3: Bet builder: Galeno to score, over 4.5 Arsenal corners, over 2.5 Porto corners @ 15/1 with Paddy Power

Porto vs Arsenal odds

Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.