Post Week 3/Week 4 Preview
Here we are at the quarter-pole of the season, and we begin to dive into the intra-conference portions of the schedule. Week 4 features six games with head-to-head ranked teams, and a seventh game, Florida State at Clemson, includes a Tigers team that essentially sits at 26th in the AP Poll. But first, a moment to reflect on some things from Week 3.
Deion Effect
What could have been for the Pac-12 had Colorado hired Deion Sanders last season instead of this season? At this point last year the Pac had just seen UCLA and USC announce their intended departures for the Big Ten, and had opened up negotiations for their next TV rights deal as a 10-team conference (for the time, at least) hoping not to fall even further behind the Big Ten and SEC in conference revenues. We know how that worked out.
But what if Coach Prime was there last year, generating the same level of hype around the CU program as he is now? Saturday’s Colorado-Colorado State matchup got the late-night treatment on ESPN, colloquially known as Pac-12 After Dark, kicking off at 10pm ET. Playing when much of the eastern half of the country is about to be sound asleep is typically not going to generate eye-popping ratings, and the Pac-12 often groaned that these games hurt their visibility (of course, the Pac-12 agreed to play them if the first place, but I digress). Teams that typically draw well – USC, Oregon, etc. – might register about 2 million viewers in the late window. The Colorado-CSU game averaged 9.3 million viewers. At its peak, which was 11-11:15pm ET, the game had 11.1 million people watching. Near the very end of that game, at 2:15am ET, there were still 8.2 million viewers tuned in. It was the most-watched game of the season, most-watched game ever in that time slot, and the 5th most-watched regular season game ever on ESPN. This for a game against a Mountain West opponent that was a 23.5-point underdog. Of course, the game was much closer than that, but still, those numbers are incredible. Imagine the Pac-12 being able to show those numbers to the networks as they were trying to negotiate a TV deal? What could have been?
Alabama Woes
Last week, following a 10-point loss to Texas, I wrung my hands over whether to keep Alabama in my Top 12. While I thought they’d certainly be favored in a neutral site game over several of the teams I had above them, I couldn’t justify moving any other teams down to make room, as I had the Longhorns outside my Top 12 the week prior and obviously needed to move them up. Now, I don’t feel so bad for my choice.
The Tide rolled to Tampa and, despite winning by two TD’s, played what was probably one of the worst performances of the Saban era against South Florida – a team coming off a 1-11 season that, unlike Colorado, has not done a complete 180-degree turnaround. It was a weird game – starting with how and why Alabama ended up scheduling a road game at S Florida. Then there was the obligatory 1-hour lightning delay – this is Florida in September after all. There was also the decision to bench QB Jalen Milroe, who started the first two games, for Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner, who stunk (5-14, 34 yards, 0 TDs). He was replaced by freshman Ty Simpson, who was only marginally better. Alabama never said so, but I tend to believe Milroe didn’t play due to some sort of disciplinary action.
While Milroe hasn’t been great so far this season, I think we can all agree he gives Alabama the best chance to win right now….and that’s part of the problem. The last time I recall anything resembling a QB controversy at Alabama it was when Tua Tagovailoa replaced Jalen Hurts at halftime in the Championship Game of 2017 against Georgia. Entering 2018, Tagovailoa held on to the starting job, and Hurts would end up transferring to Oklahoma in 2019. It’s one thing to have a controversy involving two QBs who would go on to become among the best at the NFL level. That’s not what we have here now. But really, Alabama’s problems are not on the QB alone. The offensive line, which was supposed to be a strength headed into the season, has been bad, especially in pass-protection. And there don’t appear to be any game-breaking talents at the RB or WR positions. And to put a cherry on top of it all, while Milroe appears to be the best option at QB, the play-calling when he’s in there does not seem to take advantage of his strengths – namely his threat as a runner. At least the Tide can say their defense has played well so far, save getting beat deep several times against Texas, but even the elite college defenses give up those plays sometimes against explosive offenses.
So about those rankings….maybe I was just a little ahead of my time last week. After the debacle in Tampa, the AP dropped the Tide from #10 to #13, exactly where I would have put them if I went beyond 12. It is the first time since September 2015, 128 weeks, that they have not been ranked in the Top 10. They get #15 Ole Miss this week, so with a win their absence may be short-lived.
Rankings
Week 4 Picks
Florida State @ Clemson (Noon ET, ABC, Line: FSU -2.5)
Clemson’s season, as far as making it back to the Playoff, is on the line here. So, likely, is their chance just to play for the ACC title. Their offense looked functional again the past two weeks, but that was against weak opposition. Even with a home crowd behind them, I think the Seminoles (who might have been looking ahead last week when they were nearly upset at Boston College) will be too much.
Pick: FSU -2.5 and S/U
Colorado @ Oregon (3:30 ET, ABC, Line: Oregon -20.5)
Covering a nearly 3 touchdown spread requires at least competent defense, better than that when you are talking about a Colorado offense that should still be capable even without Travis Hunter. I still think Oregon’s defense is suspect. The Ducks will put up plenty of points to win, but take the Buffs to cover.
Pick: Colorado +20.5, Oregon S/U
UCLA @ Utah (3:30 ET, Fox, Line: Utah -4.5)
The mystery around when we’ll see Utes QB Cam Rising continues. Maybe it will be this week. Maybe not. We may not know for sure until the Utah offense takes the filed the first time. I’d sure like to know before making this pick. For now, I’ll take the Bruins to cover, Utes to pull out a win.
Pick: UCLA +4.5, Utah S/U
Ole Miss @ Alabama (3:30 ET, CBS, Line: Alabama -6.5)
Maybe it’s just habit at this point, but I’m not burying Alabama yet. Jalen Milroe will be back at QB, and while he has his shortcomings, after Saturday I have no doubt he gives the Tide its best shot at winning. I’f I’m wrong here, this would be the first time in a very long time we could write Alabama out of the Playoff/BCS prior to October since I-don’t-know-when. I think the Tide are angry and motivated enough after their previous two debacles to take out some frustrations on Lane Kiffin’s bunch.
Pick: Alabama -6.5 and S/U
Oregon State @ Washington State (7pm ET, Fox, Line: Oregon State -3.0)
The first Pac-2 Championship Game is upon us. Oregon State looked a little disjointed offensively against San Diego State last week. I gotta hunch they may struggle again in Pullman.
Pick: Washington State +3 and S/U
Iowa @ Penn State (7:30pm ET, CBS, Line: Penn State -15)
The Drive to 325 continues. Father and Son Ferentz have stayed ahead of the sticks so far this season (they need to average 25 ppg, have over 28 ppg so far). I think it’s a safe bet they fall behind in a white out game at Happy Valley, and the pressure on their defense to keep it close will be too much late in the game.
Pick: Penn State -15 and S/U
Ohio State @ Notre Dame (7:30pm ET, NBC, Line: Ohio State -3.0)
This might be the most hyped game in South Bend since the infamous Bush Push versus USC in 2005. The Irish very nearly pulled the upset in that one. My gut says they pull it off this time. The much-improved Buckeye defense has not had its mettle tested like Sam Hartman and Co. will.
Pick: Notre Dame +3 and S/U
Mike Lowe
College Football Analyst
Mike is a Baltimore native living in Portland, OR since 2007. He currently runs his own business specializing in video production and online marketing. Prior to that he was a legal technology consultant, worked for 9 years at Johns Hopkins University and served 6 years in the Air Force. He also enjoys travel, food, beer, and is a volunteer at the Oregon Humane Society.
