Premier League best bets: 14/1 Tomas Soucek to score a header vs Sheffield United

After striking with Manchester United to win and under 2.5 goals vs Burnley at 4/1, Jones Knows is back with some longshots to attack this weekend.

How did we get on last weekend?

Inspiration can hit you in unlikely places. In a bid to keep my three-year-old son suitably entertained for the day, a trip to watch Rally Road Racers at the cinema was decided.

"Winners are winning, even when they are losing," said one of the characters trying to inspire young Zhi, who wages a bet (of course there had to be betting involved) with Vainglorious, the reigning champion of the rally car circuit.

It's a great mantra to take into analysing whether a certain bet was indeed a good one despite the outcome. Was the price in your favour? How fine were the margins at play? Would you back it again at the price?

That crossed my mind when analysing my Newcastle bets last weekend, where we needed seven or more corners to land at Evens vs Sheffield United. Somehow, the rampant Toon managed to rack up a higher goals output than corner return, scoring eight and winning just six corners - of course, in a dominant showing.

That meant the 13/2 treble went south but there was a winner to celebrate as Manchester United duly delivered on the ugly win front, meaning we grabbed eight points of profit having double staked the 4/1 shot for a United win and under 2.5 goals.

After James Maddison failed to land two shots on target vs Arsenal - he grabbed two assists - it meant we left the weekend with +6 of profit. We are still losing on the season profit and loss but the decision making remains strong. I feel like we are winning even though we are losing.

Time to turn that into some actual winning, then.

P+L = -2

I really like the unders and Bournemouth angle on Saturday at a big price.

Despite his slow start in England, I'd also still point to Andoni Iraola's record with Rayo Vallecano against the big three teams in Spain as a valid argument to throw into the mix. His football stifles elite attacks. That was on show for 45 minutes against Brighton last weekend, where the usually rampant Seagulls were left puzzled. It made me sit up, take notice and believe that the manager is starting to implement his ideas on his Bournemouth team despite them still being winless. In 13 matches against Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid his Vallecano side never lost by more than one goal in notoriously low scoring games that averaged just 2.2 goals per 90.

Furthermore, 12 of those 13 fixtures produced less than 3.5 goals - quite a feat considering the limitations Iraola had at his disposal compared to the big boys. If his message is getting across, then Bournemouth have the tools to make this a very difficult afternoon for the Gunners. At the prices, the 12/1 available on Bournemouth to win and under 2.5 goals in the match is worth a bet.

Tomas Soucek's powers from open play are seemingly on the wane in this side but Moyes still rates him as an automatic starter when he's fit, something that probably will hold the Hammers back this season. The reason Moyes has started him in 121 games as his manager (no outfield player has started more) is his presence and threat from direct play.

In his last 11 Premier League appearances he is goalless but has had 17 shots at goal to a backdrop of 1.91 worth of expected goals - a very healthy return. Nine of those attempts were headers, including one that drew a stunning save from Alisson in the defeat at Anfield, so the prices dangled by Sky Bet on him scoring with a header do seem rather generous against such a limited opposition. He scored in midweek against Lincoln and in the 3-1 win over Bačka Topolaso, so I'm happy to back him to go in again here with the added price boost of the goal coming from a header.

Aaron Hickey is now a mainstay in this Brentford side, starting the last 11 Premier League games, and is developing in the usual way you'd expect when playing under Thomas Frank. His attacking output from his full-back position is spiking, too. He's had seven shots at goal in his last five games, including testing Nick Pope with a strike from a tight angle in the 1-0 defeat at Newcastle. And even though he's never scored for the Bees, a goal might be around the corner with the 50/1 too good to ignore this weekend.

Three value soaked angles, combined together in a warm, comforting treble.