Premier League predictions: Arsenal to lose at underrated Bournemouth
Arsenal could be in for a massive shock at Bournemouth, writes tipster Jones Knows, who takes aim at the weekend's Premier League card.
Aston Villa vs Brighton, Saturday 12.30pm
My theory on Aston Villa being a grossly overrated team set for a period of sticky results has been rammed back down my throat by back-to-back Premier League wins. However, their complete no-show in midweek at home to Everton, where they were outplayed in every department, has offered me hope that perhaps I am still onto something regarding Unai Emery's inability to sustain high-level results gained early in a new job.
To concede 1.83 worth of expected goals to a limited Everton attack, including four big chances, is quite eye-opening. It wasn't a severely weakened Villa team either.
You can't be offering up chances of that nature to Brighton, who have averaged over two goals per game in 38 Premier League matches under Roberto De Zerbi. They have shown a serious ruthlessness at sustaining leads having won the last eight games when scoring first and I'm always keen on backing them when priced as an outsider in the win-draw-loss market - like they are here at 8/5 with Sky Bet. Away win it is.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Bournemouth vs Arsenal, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Arsenal's last 12 games away from home against teams that finished in the bottom half have seen an average of just 1.9 total goals per game. And if you take the 2-2 against West Ham out of the equation, a team that went on to win a European trophy, that average drops to 1.7 goals per game. The market has the goal expectancy just above three goals for this one which looks too high and makes under 2.5 goals an appealing prospect at 6/4 with Sky Bet.
Despite his slow start in England, I'd also point to Andoni Iraola's record with Rayo Vallecano against the big three teams in Spain as a valid argument to throw into the mix. His football stifles elite attacks. That was on show for 45 minutes against Brighton last weekend, where the usually rampant Seagulls were left puzzled. It made me sit up, take notice and believe that the manager is starting to implement his ideas on his Bournemouth team despite them still being winless.
In 13 matches against Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid his Vallecano side never lost by more than one goal in notoriously low-scoring games that averaged just 2.2 goals per 90.
Furthermore, 12 of those 13 fixtures produced less than 3.5 goals - quite a feat considering the limitations Iraola had at his disposal compared to the big boys. If his message is getting across, then Bournemouth have the tools to make this a very difficult afternoon for the Gunners. At the prices, the 12/1 available on Bournemouth to win and under 2.5 goals in the match is worth a bet.
Everton vs Luton, Saturday 3pm
Everton are 1/2 with Sky Bet to win a Premier League home match.
Just think about that for a minute.
It just feels wrong and dirty, doesn't it? This is a team that stayed up by the skin of their teeth last season, have yet to score a goal at home in three matches this campaign and haven't managed to score more than once in their last 16 fixtures at Goodison Park. That is over a year of football.
All this is caveated, however, by two excellent away performances at Brentford and Aston Villa of late, plus, an overall picture of results not quite matching up to performance levels at Goodison Park, where they have underachieved on their expected goals for figure by a whopping 12 goals. Sean Dyche's football does remain tough to play against when his central striker is fit and firing - well, now he has two of them in Beto and Dominic Calvert-Lewin.
But no matter what you think about Luton's prospects this season, they do possess a sound defensive structure capable of shutting out teams of Everton's calibre. This is a defence that conceded the fewest away goals (18) and kept the joint-most away clean sheets (11) in the entire EFL last season.
Fulham struggled to break them down in their last away day, creating an expected goals figure of just 0.95. So, with Everton looking too skinny in the win market and the chance of a low-scoring affair staring us straight in the face, the play must be backing the under 2.5 goal line and chancing Luton to avoid defeat. It pays 9/4 on the Bet Builder with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-0
Manchester United vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Casemiro's goal in the midweek 3-0 win over Crystal Palace was his 11th for Manchester United since the start of last season and his fourth of the campaign already. The addition of Sofyan Amrabat into that midfield area is only going to allow Casemiro more licence to get involved with United's attacking patterns whether that will be from open play or - more likely - set pieces. With huge potential for Erik ten Hag's side to dominate the shots count and score multiple goals in this one, Casemiro's prices across his attacking metrics look worth attacking.
The former Real Madrid man has averaged 1.96 shots per 90 across his last 30 appearances for United, including hitting two or more shots in seven of his last 12 games. The 11/10 with Sky Bet for him to register two or more again rates as a value call in what should be a comfortable afternoon at Old Trafford for Ten Hag's men.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Newcastle vs Burnley, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
The fixture list is punishing Burnley. This will be their fifth game, of six played, that pits them against a side that finished in the top eight last season. And their timing of playing Newcastle couldn't be worse, meeting the rejuvenated Toon following wins over Sheffield United and Manchester City. Vincent Kompany will get them up the table in time, but this task looks a tall order. Newcastle are fair enough at 2/7 with Sky Bet for three points.
Set pieces could be their route to the opening goal. Newcastle led the charts for shots and expected goals created from set pieces last season in the Premier League and Dan Burn and Sven Botman both scored headers in their thumping of Sheffield United. It's a huge part of their armoury and they'll be asking Burnley so many questions from such situations.
Kompany's men lack so much presence when defending set plays and have conceded three goals already via that method with Jonny Evans also having one ruled out in Manchester United's win. Burn and Botman - both 50/1 to score the first goal - are overpriced.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
West Ham vs Sheffield United, Saturday 3pm
David Moyes will be rubbing his knees with glee at the prospect of pummelling Sheffield United from wide areas with the set-piece mastery of James Ward-Prowse. The Blades have shipped the most shots (38), expected goals (3.57) and goals (4) from set pieces this season with Newcastle running amok from that avenue last Sunday.
My eyes are drawn to Tomas Soucek to score a header at 14/1 with Sky Bet at the prices. His powers from open play are seemingly on the wane in this side but Moyes still rates him as an automatic starter when he's fit, something that probably will eventually hold the Hammers back this season. The reason Moyes has started him in 121 games as his manager (no outfield player has started more) is for his presence and threat from direct play.
In his last 11 Premier League appearances Soucek is goalless but has had 17 shots at goal to a backdrop of 1.91 worth of expected goals - a very healthy return. Nine of those attempts were headers, including one that drew a stunning save from Alisson in the defeat at Anfield, so the prices dangled by Sky Bet on him scoring with a header do seem rather generous against such a limited opposition. He scored in midweek against Lincoln and in the 3-1 win over Bačka Topolaso, so I'm happy to back him to go in again here with the added price boost of the goal coming from a header.
Wolves vs Manchester City, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Trying to find genuine value in Manchester City matches is tough, but backing Erling Haaland to score headers is becoming an effective strategy with the prices on offer. The markets haven't really clocked his aerial threat yet.
Of Haaland's 36 Premier League goals last season, seven of them came via headers. He is a terrific finisher aerially - hardly surprising when you stand over six feet tall and are being served up so much delightful service from some of the world's best and, especially, as Man City are no longer the perfect passing goal gurus. They like to mix it by playing more direct into the box where possible. A no-brainer really when you consider the monster in the middle.
He already leads the way for headed goals this season in the Premier League (2), where the prices on offer against Sheffield United and Nottingham Forest were 6/1 and 7/2 respectively, meaning you'd be swimming in profit to level stakes if backing it blindly. There is no reason to desert it for this encounter either where Sky Bet have dangled 9/2 about him scoring with his head.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-3
Tottenham vs Liverpool, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
If you had to choose a team to pay good money to watch, Tottenham would be top of my list at the minute. This should be a fantastic and potentially barmy game involving two red-hot attacks. You can get 22/1 on a 0-0 which must be up there with the biggest ever price for that scoreline in a meeting between two 'big six' teams. The goal expectancy is almost at four goals. It's 4/5 for over 3.5 goals. Scarily high. Don't back that. Back Heung-Min Son.
You can rest assured Son will be testing the Liverpool offside trap on regular occasions, especially now from his new central striking role that has seen him score five goals across his last three starts. Son has recorded a whopping 5.81 worth of expected goals in his 11 Premier League starts vs Liverpool, scoring five times.
The problem we have here is his price, 6/4 with Sky Bet is very meh. There is a way to juice it up though by adding him to be caught offside at least once in the match which, courtesy of the Bet Builder feature, rockets the price to 7/2. He has been caught offside 11 times in those 11 starts against Jurgen Klopp's side.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Nottingham Forest vs Brentford, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Thomas Frank is a savvy operator who knows how to puzzle solve but the balance hasn't looked quite right this season with his Brentford side. They've only beaten Fulham across all competitions in 90 minutes and when you factor in how hard Nottingham Forest are to beat at home, losing just two of their last 17 matches at the City Ground, the 6/4 with Sky Bet on an away win does look skinny. Forest on the draw no bet market at 10/11 looks backable to me.
Give me a longshot any day of the week though - and I'd rather take a chance on the 50/1 first goalscorer price of Aaron Hickey for Brentford. The Scottish full-back is now a mainstay in this Brentford side, starting the last 11 Premier League games, and is developing in the usual way you'd expect when playing under Frank.
His attacking output from his full-back position is spiking, too. He's had seven shots at goal in his last five games, including testing Nick Pope with a strike from a tight angle in the 1-0 defeat at Newcastle. And even though he's never scored for the Bees, one might be around the corner with the 50/1 too good to ignore this weekend.
Fulham vs Chelsea, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
As someone who puts lots of emphasis on the underlying numbers when making assessments of teams, this fixture is troubling me. All the data is telling me to back Chelsea at Evens with Sky Bet but my eyes tell me otherwise. I'm torn.
Fulham are a team I rarely have faith in due to their constant defying of their performance data. The quality of chance they offer up to the opposition equates to 1.79 worth of expected goals per 90 - it's a figure that should have them rated as a relegation-threatened side and hasn't improved this season. Southampton were relegated with an expected goals against record of 1.63 per 90 last season.
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Marco Silva's side have conceded 3.5 goals fewer than their expected goals faced this season - that's the highest in the Premier League. They are at it again.
I have been convinced a regression to the mean is coming with Fulham in terms of their results dropping to a level associated with a relegation team, but they remain defiant, even since losing Aleksander Mitrovic. They even lost the expected goals battle to Luton at home and still won the game. My mind has been boggled by Silva's side.
And then you have Chelsea, who the underlying numbers suggest they have been very unfortunate in making the club's worst-ever start after six games in a Premier League season based on expected goals both for and against, which ranks them sixth for expected goals for and third for expected goals against.
Mauricio Pochettino's men have created better chances than their opponents in all six Premier League games this season.
What to do then? Trust the numbers? Or go with my gut which is telling me to swerve Chelsea? Numbers wins.
