Premier League best bets: Back 100/30 Bryan Mbeumo to fire vs Newcastle

Jones Knows unleashes his best bets for the weekend with a double points play advised on Bryan Mbeumo scoring at Newcastle.

How did we get on last weekend?

You can throw all the tastiest ingredients into the pot but if what you serve up doesn't taste nice or falls flat then you have to hold your hands up. There were lots of well rationalised bets across this column and predictions last week but the proof of the pudding shows a -2 on the card. Results business and all that.

The 11/1 treble lost by one leg as Everton's draw with Sheffield United was a blow. Brighton to beat Newcastle and West Ham's foul count vs Luton both bolted up leaving the bet an agonising loser.

Talking of agonising losers, Enzo Fernandez, who was tipped up at 11/1 to score first vs Nottingham Forest, had four shots to an expected goals tally of 0.32 but didn't put the ball in the goal. Some things never change at Chelsea.

However, if things do start to click there the boy Fernandez will rack up the goal involvements. Keep him in your thinking at his inflated current odds. We move on...

P+L = -5

The bet of the weekend revolves around Brighton and England centre-back Lewis Dunk making one or more fouls at Evens. Rasmus Hojlund is going to cause chaos in attack for United with his aggressive nature and all-action style. The striker didn't look fazed by the occasion when making his debut at Arsenal, latching himself onto the ultra-physical Gabriel from the moment he entered the fray and he mixed it in some heavyweight one-on-one duels.

He has drawn 19 fouls across his last 12 appearances for club and country and it will be Dunk tasked with engaging him. Dunk averages just 0.40 fouls a game over his last 25 matches, meaning the price spat out by the algorithm makes him the outsider of all Brighton players to make a foul. That is wrong. Punish them.

Newcastle have kept just two clean sheets in 22 Premier League games having previously kept six in a row. It's a defence that is lacking in cohesion and confidence.

How can we profit, then?

Simple, really. Back one of the most in-form marksman in Europe to score at St James' Park.

Brentford are unbeaten in all nine Premier League games since the start of last season without Ivan Toney (W5 D4) and Bryan Mbeumo has nine goals in those games. Since the start of last season, he is averaging a goal every 90 minutes when playing without Toney, compared to a goal every 826 minutes when they play together.

I was therefore surprised to see odds of 3/1 with Sky Bet available on him finding the net at anytime while the 22/1 with Sky Bet for him to score two or more also are worth consideration.