Premier League betting: Back Harry Maguire to score a header at 20/1 vs Leeds

Our tipster Jones Knows has his eyes on two bets in Leeds vs Manchester United involving Paul Pogba and Harry Maguire.

How did our bets do last time?

Both bets went down the drain, in completely different styles.

The less said about the 4/1 on 50 or more booking points and Leeds to have 14 or more shots vs Everton the better. Marcelo Bielsa's team had one of their 'leggy' days against a fully-pumped-up Toffees. From the first barnstorming Everton tackle it was clear the 4/1 shot was a 400/1 shot such was Leeds' lack of bite and zest.

Meanwhile, Southampton to win five or more corners and have 13 or more shots vs Manchester United was a fun ride that ended in an agonising defeat. Backing a Ralph Hasenhuttl team in these markets always gives you a good run and his Saints side delivered in that regard at Old Trafford. All we needed was one more corner in the final 30 minutes of play.

Just one.

A skewed Harry Maguire backpass was clawed away from the byline by David de Gea and my adrenaline levels became too high when the brilliant Armando Broja could not quite find the required deflection by the corner flag to bring home the fifth Saints corner.

Me and corner bets are not friends at the minute. It's a very volatile and mostly unpredictable metric to get right but I make an exception for Southampton-like sides who attack very directly down the channels. It might be time to go cold turkey on the corners.

P+L = +46

Sunday...

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Investing in Manchester United peppering the Leeds goal looks an angle to exploit and I have headed towards the individual player markets on a hunt for some value. I will be stunned if Paul Pogba is not unleashed at Elland Road after being rested in midweek. He has looked fighting fit and motivated to impress since returning from injury - yes, his contract is up soon. The France midfielder ripped Leeds apart at Old Trafford earlier in the campaign, grabbing four assists as their man-to-man style failed miserably to contain him. He will be a big threat driving from midfield in this one and I like him with Sky Bet for him to register two or more shots. He has averaged 2.7 shots per 90 minutes in his 830 minutes of action this season. Double Pogba up with Harry Maguire to have a shot on target.

It's also about time Maguire started chipping in at the top end of the pitch. Unbelievably, despite scoring six goals in his last 13 caps for England he has not scored for United for over a year.

The signs are there that might be about to change though as he has registered three shots on target in his last three matches. Now he faces a team who just love conceding from set pieces. Leeds have shipped 11 Premier League goals from set plays this season, excluding penalties. United's run of 138 corners without scoring in the Premier League could be about to end. I will be backing Maguire to have a shot on target in the Pogba double and for him to score a header at 20/1.