Premier League Betting Power Rankings: Matchday 25
Premier League Matchday 26... Wow, where has the time gone? It feels like just yesterday that we all were super stoked for the start of the season. That’s the beauty of sports, regardless of what’s going on in our personal lives, the games continue! While a few may know, I was out for a few months after the birth of my beautiful angel Juliette! Shout out to my fearless leader Brian for holding it down and stacking a few units while he was at it.
That said, I’m BACK! And I’m so ready to dive headfirst into this matchday and continue where Brian left off. Throughout the rest of the season, you can expect me to give you at least two bets from each game. Then give my betting power rankings for the top choices.
Crystal Palace vs Burnley (Saturday, 10 AM ET)
Bet 1: Crystal Palace Team Total Over 1.5 (+115)
Bet 2: Both Teams to Score (-112)
Welcome to London, Oliver Glasner. The old Frankfurt boss has taken over for Roy Hodgson after he stepped down as the manager of Crystal Palace. While Crystal Palace have only won three matches at home this season, their moneyline at –105 is enticing with the new manager bounce, however, I prefer to bet their Team Total Over 1.5 (+115). It’s a better price and they are playing against a Burnley side who are conceding 1.92 goals per road contest.
Despite neither team being particularly good in front of net and Palace being very banged up, and still both teams to score seems to hit in almost every match they two play. BTTS is hitting in 67% of the awaydays for Burnley and 67% in home matches for Crystal Palace. At –112, it’s a worthy bet for this match.
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest (Saturday, 10 AM ET)
Bet 1: Aston Villa 1H –1.25 Corner Handicap (-130)
Bet 2: Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals (-105)
Every bone in my body wants to bet Ollie Watkins to score +120, however, I think two other bets might have a bit more value in this match. The first for me is Aston Villa 1H –1.25 Corner Handicap (-130). In the reverse fixture, Villa won the first-half corner handicap 6-0. There was a different manager at the time, but this line has cleared in four straight for opposing home teams against Forest. The Villains have also won at an alarming rate, especially against bottom-half clubs.
I like Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals (-105). The data isn’t the strongest for Forest with only a 45% hit rate on the road, however since Nuno Espirito took over at Forest, seven of the eight matches they’ve played have seen BTTS + O2.5, while all eight have seen BTTS. With Villa hitting at a 65% clip, it’s a must-bet at this point.
Manchester United vs Fulham (Saturday, 10 AM ET)
Bet 1: Garnacho SOT + Manchester United ML (+140)
Bet 2: Manchester United to Win and Under 4.5 Goals (-110)
Alejandro Garnacho leads Manchester United in shots per game and has hit the target at least two times in his last three games. I can’t pass up the value Alejandro Garnacho 2+ SOT +250, especially since Fulham are allowing 16.3 shots per road game and 13.68 shots on target per 90 minutes.
Fading Fulham here. They have the second worst road record in the Premier League, just narrowly ahead of Sheffield United. Take Manchester United to Win and Under 4.5 Goals (-110).
Brighton vs Everton (Saturday, 10 AM ET)
Bet 1: Brighton ML (-115)
Bet 2: Parlay: Everton Over 3.5 Corners & Over 1.5 Goals (-105)
I have a hard time figuring out how Everton scores two goals in this match. Their attack has dried up. They’ve struggled to play through the middle of the pitch and have resorted to sending long balls over the top to Dominic Calvert-Lewin who is in horrible form right now. I have Brighton netting two at the American Express Stadium. So, it’s simple Brighton ML (-115) for me.
The second bet in this match is a bit greasy. It’s a parlay: Everton Over 3.5 Corners & Over 1.5 Goals (-105). Brighton concede a lot of corners in their matches. Everton hit this number at about a 57% clip. Sean Dyche will have to think his team can score against Brighton, I mean, everyone does. Then they will open the game up in search of a goal or two to help with the relegation battle.
Bournemouth vs Manchester City (Saturday, 12:30 PM ET)
Bet 1: Draw at Halftime (+170)
Bet 2: Dominic Solanke to Score or Assist (+162)
Call me crazy, but I like the first half to finish in a Draw +170. With City, you’d naturally think they would always win the first halves, right? Not so much, they have only won 17% of the first halves away from home this season. 42% of those have been draws. Bournemouth lost just 17% of the first halves at Vitality Stadium.
I don’t love the 3.25 total being set on this match. Only 42% of City’s away matches have seen at least four goals, but 83% of their away matches have seen at least three. I could make a case for both the over and the under. City have only kept two clean sheets on the road this season. They consistently have lapses that allow their opponents to score. Generally misplaced passes, sending the other team on the break. There aren’t many better in transition than Dominic Solanke. He’s in great form as well. With 14 goals and three assists, I like the price of +162 for Solanke to Score or Assist.
Wolves vs Sheffield United (Sunday, 8:30 AM ET)
Bet 1: Wolves –1.25 1H Corner Handicap (-110)
Bet2: Wolves to Win and Over 2.5 Goals (+115)
Sheffield United are a club fighting for safety. A few weeks back, feeling the pressure of certain relegation, Sheffield United boss Chris Wilder started to implement a back five home or away. Since then, they have lost four straight first-half corner handicaps. All losses by two or more. Why is that? Because with five at the back that sit deep, your opportunities to go forward are limited. Thus, resulting in a lot of pressure and a lot of shots faced. Translating to more corners for the opposition. I am betting Wolves –1.25 1H Corners (-110).
Finding a second bet for this match was difficult. Sheffield United don’t shoot or score often. They concede 2.42 goals per contest and their matches generally always go over. Wolves score two in this match and are likely to win. There’s a strong possibility they will score three or concede. Back Wolves to Win and Over 2.5 Goals (+115).
West Ham vs Brentford (Monday, 3 PM ET)
Bet 1: Both Teams to Score and Tie (+340)
Bet 2: Toney Anytime Goal Scorer (+160)
Brentford have seen over 2.5 goals in five of their last six and BTTS has hit in eight of their last nine. However, West Ham are winless in their last eight and haven’t scored in their last three. You’d have to imagine West Ham can’t be shut out at home, against a leaky Brentford side. If we are being honest, this match should be a coin flip. It kind of feels like, a point from both is a firm handshake. I’m backing the draw, but since I think this match starts at 1-1, I am playing Both Teams to Score and Tie (+340).
Whenever I hear someone reference Ivan Toney, I think about the scene from Wolf of Wall Street, where the cast is sitting at the table and banging their hands chanting “One of Us.” So naturally in a match where I think there will be goals, I am forced to bet Toney Anytime Goal Scorer (+160). It helps that he’s already scored four times since his return from suspension.
