Premier League: Everton vs. Brighton odds, predictions, pick
Things are getting nervy for Everton Football Club. After a 0-1-4 (W-D-L) start to the season, it looked like the Toffees were going to really struggle to avoid relegation in 2023-24. But Everton’s statistical profile, even during that dip, pointed in the right direction and a 6-1-1 stretch between November and December seemed to calm everyone’s nerves. Unfortunately, the Toffees were hit with a 10-point deduction during that stretch and a lot of their hard work was wiped out.
To make matters worse, Everton is 0-4-4 in its last eight contests and hasn’t won a match since Dec. 16. The Toffees are +310 underdogs to break the schneid against Brighton on Saturday.
For a good portion of the season, Everton’s underlying numbers were quite impressive. The team was regularly winning the expected goals (xG) battle and according to Understat’s Expected Points model, the Toffees were playing like a top-half club.
But Everton’s recent run of form has, obviously, not been as impressive. The underlying data still isn’t bad, Everton has created 13.5 expected goals and conceded 13.5, but the on-field execution just hasn’t been there. Despite creating 13.5 xG, the Toffees have scored just five goals in their last eight matches and they’ve scored more than one goal just once in that span.
The good news for Everton is they will now take on a side that has been leaking too many goals this season. Brighton is one of the league’s most exciting clubs, but the Seagulls are giving up 1.6 goals per contest.
Because of their high-event style, the range of outcomes for any match involving Brighton are all over the map and that makes them a candidate to upset any team in the Premier League, but it also means they can slip up against any opponent. Brighton has dropped points against Everton, Burnley, Sheffield United and Luton Town already in 2023-24 and it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Seagulls get upset against a desperate team that should experience some positive regression soon.
The Bet: Everton +310 (DraftKings)
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