Premier League title race: Predicting who will win, analysis on remaining games

The Premier League title race is a remarkable three horse race (at least) as we enter the final few months of the 2023-24 season.

But who will win it all?

Reigning champs Manchester City are back to their best, while injury-hit Liverpool lead the way and surging Arsenal have made things even more interesting.

I guess we can still call Aston Villa and Tottenham outside title contenders but a lot would have to go in their favor for either of that duo to win it all.

Below we focus on the current top three in the Premier League and predict the points they will get and how it will all pan out between now and the final day on May 19.

Liverpool

Current position: 1st

Current points: 57 points

Games remaining: Luton (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Manchester City (H), Everton (A), Brighton (H), Sheffield United (H), Manchester United (A), Crystal Palace (H), Fulham (A), West Ham (A), Tottenham (H), Aston Villa (A), Wolves (H)

Predicted points: 88 points

Yes, injuries (and plenty of ‘em) will hamper Liverpool’s title push but they have the easiest remaining schedule out of the three contenders. The only games you can see them dropping points in are against Manchester City, Manchester United, Tottenham and maybe Aston Villa. That’s it. As long as the injury problems calm down then Jurgen Klopp looks set to get the perfect ending to his Liverpool career.

Arsenal

Current position: 2nd

Current points: 55 points

Games remaining: Newcastle (H), Sheffield United (A), Brentford (H), Chelsea (H), Manchester City (A), Luton Town (H), Brighton (A), Aston Villa (H), Wolves (A), Tottenham (A), Bournemouth (H), Manchester United (A), Everton (H)

Predicted points: 86 points

Mikel Arteta’s side are a different animal to last season. They are enjoying the title race this time. They’ve learned how to control games and they’ve mirrored Manchester City in kicking on and being more ruthless as soon as spring is threatening to arrive in England. They do have some very tricky games to negotiate with Newcastle, Chelsea, Manchester City, Brighton, Aston Villa, Wolves, Tottenham and Manchester United all still to come. There’s nothing Arsenal will be scared of but in reality they can’t afford to lose more than two of their final 13 games. They’re going to be right there until the final week of the season and how far they go in the Champions League will also impact their title hopes. The only issue is that Arsenal’s squad isn’t strong enough to withstand an injury to a key player like Saka, Rice or Odegaard, while City and Liverpool have more depth.

Manchester City

Current position: 3rd

Current points: 53 points

Games remaining: Brentford (H), Bournemouth (A), Manchester United (H), Liverpool (A), Brighton (A), Arsenal (H), Aston Villa (H), Crystal Palace (A), Luton Town (H), Tottenham (A), Nottingham Forest (A), Wolves (H), Fulham (A), West Ham (H)

Predicted points: 87 points

We all know City are a juggernaut and at this time of the season they kick on, plus they’re chasing a double-treble for goodness sake. That said, they are looking very susceptible on the counter attack and Erling Haaland isn’t quite as clinical as he was last season. That will probably lead to a few more draws in their final 14 games and they have a tricky run coming up in March/early April that will define their season. Manchester United, Liverpool, Brighton, Arsenal and Aston Villa is a heck of a run of five games and City know they’ll have to win at least four of those games to put themselves in a commanding position. Their trip to Anfield on March 10 looks like it will be pivotal and the outcome of that match has the potential to tip the title race in either direction. It’s that tight.

And the winner will be...

Liverpool! Okay, this prediction will likely change on a weekly basis between now and May 19 but you can’t look past three things when it comes to Liverpool’s title push: 1) Salah is back and firing on all cylinders. 2) Liverpool have the easiest remaining schedule. 3) Klopp is leaving and his players, and everyone at the club, will do whatever they can do make it an incredible farewell.

But, injuries are piling up for Liverpool and they are still in four competitions. Is their squad depth enough to get past Man City and Arsenal to win the title?