Prop bets for NC State vs Virginia

NC State football is heading to Charlottesville, Virginia, to take on Virginia in its first ACC matchup of the season. With just hours till kickoff, here are some bets we feel confident in.

NC State (-9.5) vs Virginia

After suffering a fourth-quarter collapse to then No.10 Notre Dame, NC State bounced back with a convincing 45-7 victory over the VMI Keydets. The Wolfpack played complementary football, scoring touchdowns on offense, defense and special teams. Graduate quarterback Brennan Armstrong had his best game with the red-and-white, completing 84% of his passes for 264 yards and a touchdown. Armstrong is starting to build a connection with his receivers just in time for ACC play.

Virginia football is off to a rough start under second-year head coach Tony Elliott with an 0-3 record heading into its game against NC State. The Cavaliers are coming off a 42-14 loss to Maryland, but Virginia was neck-and-neck with the Terrapins before Maryland scored an unanswered 21 points. Although Virginia is relying on a freshman quarterback to lead its squad, the defense has let the team down, allowing 42.3 points per game.

Expect the NC State offense to continue to roll as Armstrong makes his return to Virginia and will want to put on a show against his former squad. While the Pack offense should have success, the defense will allow NC State to cover as it goes up against a freshman quarterback who threw three interceptions last week.

Pick: NC State -9.5

Over/Under 48 total points

The Wolfpack offense found its rhythm against an inferior VMI team, amassing 498 yards of total offense. While Armstrong has been inconsistent through his first three games, it seems he’s found his number-one option in freshman receiver Kevin Concepcion, who leads the team in receptions and yards. This connection will boost the Pack’s offense moving forward.

Even though I expect the NC State offense to put up points, the defense should have a field day against Virginia’s freshman signal caller. Defensive coordinator Tony Gibson will throw everything at him, and for that reason, I expect this game to go under the point total.

Pick: Under 48 points

Touchdown prop

Through the first three games of the season, the Wolfpack has used a variety of running backs on offense. Sophomore Michael Allen seems to be the Pack’s primary three-down back, but the Pack has a different approach when running power run plays, using redshirt junior Delbert Mimms III in short-yardage. In fact, Mimms leads the running backs with three touchdowns. 

The Wolfpack should see many red zone trips against Virginia’s porous defense, who has allowed a total of 127 points to opponents thus far, with its opponents averaging just over 42 points a game. Mimms is bound to see an abundance of goal line carries, so expect to see his fourth touchdown on Friday.

Pick: Delbert Mimms III anytime touchdown (+175)

Yardage prop

Virginia has shown to have one of the worst run defenses in the NCAA, allowing 573 rushing yards to opponents and an average of 191 yards per game. The Cavalier run defense ranks 117th in the nation and has allowed 11 rushing touchdowns through three games. Armstrong has showcased his mobility throughout the season, rushing for 161 yards thus far. His ability to scramble outside the pocket and avoid pressure is something few quarterbacks in the ACC have shown, and should help propel him to a great performance running the ball.

Pick: Brennan Armstrong over 32.5 rushing yards