Qatar Goodwood Festival Timefigure Tips: Wednesday

Evidence from the first couple of races at Goodwood on Tuesday is that the ground looks to be on the soft side. And with a nasty band of rain forecast to circle the area on Wednesday morning, looking to contain some very heavy showers and unlikely to clear until late afternoon, the likelihood is that we’re going to be looking at even softer conditions than prevailed on Tuesday.

The opening race on the card is a competitive handicap for three-year-olds over a mile and a half. First port of call, as with all these handicaps run over seven furlongs or longer, is to see what the Johnston stable are running having won this race four times since 2010.

They saddle no less than a quarter of the field, with Struth the shortest priced of their quartet and a sure thing to handle conditions having won in heavy ground at Chester in May. He was one of those who ended up going off too hard in the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot – Tagabawa, who reopposes, was another in that race who did the same – but two thirds since suggest he’s not the most progressive.

Tagabawa, who is strictly best on the clock, did very well to finish sixth at Ascot all things considered and was probably unsuited by the drop back to ten furlongs at Newmarket last time, but his pedigree suggests soft ground, if indeed it is soft, might well be a problem.

Stout stayer Fox Journey, who represents Sir Michael Stoute – who has won this twice in recent years, including with subsequent Hardwicke Stakes winner Dartmouth – will have no problems on that score and looks solid top-four material. So too does Amleto, who is probably the most interesting runner of all being an extremely late foal (born 8 June). He's no doubt been kept back for this by trainer William Haggas having won in good style in the mud at the Chester May meeting.

However, the remit of this column is to tip something that has very good claims on the clock and, though Amleto ran the third-fastest last three furlongs behind St James's Palace also-ran Mostabshir on his final start as a two-year-old and then ran two of the fastest last three furlongs at Chester, there’s no outstanding time-based claim I can make for him.

For me Amleto is the most likely winner of the opener but, as a lightly-raced improver from a top yard, he hasn’t been missed in the market and I’ll look to the following Whispering Angel Oak Tree Stakes (14:25) for my first selection.

As I mentioned in my introductory piece yesterday, high draws tend to be disadvantaged on the round course at Goodwood and that makes things slightly tricky for one of the Irish raiders, Matilda Picotte, who was third in the 1000 Guineas but has been handed the 'coffin box' draw widest of all in stall 16.

A three-year-old won this race last year in the shape of George Boughey’s Oscula, but their rate of success in this event has slowed since changes have been made to the calendar, as well as the official weight-for-age scale, in recent years, and I’m inclined to look towards the older horses to solve the puzzle.

Fast Response, a daughter of noted soft-ground sire Fast Company, is marginally top on time on two pieces of heavy-ground form at Doncaster over five and six furlongs, but she showed that she’s just as effective at seven with a close second to Holguin in a listed race at Chester last time. Drawn widest of all there, she was dropped in and ended up too far back before finishing strongly, running a much faster last two furlongs than any of the opposition.

However, she hasn’t always been the best away and that makes her draw in stall 1 potentially very tricky as her rider Clifford Lee (out of the first three on 12 of his 14 rides beyond six furlongs here) looks to break his round-course duck.

In contrast, Jumbly, who has only 1 lb to find on the clock, is ridden by top round-course rider Ryan Moore. She could have been better drawn, but stall 12 isn’t the end of the world and she promises to be suited by this drop to seven after running out of puff late on in the Duke of Cambridge at Royal Ascot last time.

The last time she encountered properly soft ground was at Newbury late in 2021 when bolting up in the Radley Stakes by four lengths in a smart time and she looks to have very solid credentials.

Clifford Lee also has a fair shout aboard Kylian, a wide-margin winner at Sandown last time, in the Molecomb Stakes, but Windsor Castle winner Big Evs recorded a faster timefigure at Ascot and has straight-course specialist rider Jason Hart on board. Whether he will be as effective on this slower ground remains to be seen, however, and though Barnwell Boy flopped in that race, his debut win in a very fast time came here so he can’t be discounted if he handles the ground also.

A bit too much guesswork is involved for me to want to get involved, however, while short-priced favourite Paddington holds a clear advantage on form and time in the Sussex Stakes and is proven on very soft ground, unlike his main rival Inspiral. So, with the conditions event for two-year-old fillies looking a minefield, I’ll head to the fillies handicap over ten furlongs (16:45), for my final pick.

This looks competitive at first sight, the bookmakers betting 7/2 the field, and has attracted three horses – Decoration, Queen Regent and Therapist – who earned the Timeform 'Horse In Focus' Flag last time, but Charlie Johnston’s Sirona will do for me.

Oddly enough, this is one of the handicaps the Johnstons haven’t won at the Festival, partly due to it not having been inaugurated until 2016 – Ralph Beckett has won it in two out of the last three years and saddles wide-margin Salisbury winner La Isla Mujeres here – but they are two-handed here and Sirona, who is partnered again by William Buick, looks the stable first string.

A listed winner on slow ground at Cologne last year, she ran way better than her finishing position in the Cheshire Oaks on her reappearance this season, sent for home too soon and briefly going clear only to capitulate in the punishing conditions. She then shaped similarly on her next start in the listed Height of Fashion at this course.

Dropped back to a mile in a Newmarket handicap last time, she ran easily the fastest last furlong in the competitive handicap won by Darkness, almost half a second faster than anything else, suggesting strongly she’s in need of a step back up to ten furlongs, as her pedigree suggests.

Edged up just 1lb for that effort, she’s clearly on a winning mark and can go one better here.

Recommendations

Back Jumbly in the 2.25 at Goodwood at 5/1

Back Sirona in the 4.45 at Goodwood at 9/1

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