Rangers-Mets prediction: Picks, odds on Monday, August 28

Despite having the second-best run differential in the American League, the Texas Rangers (73-57) enter play on Monday as a Wild Card team thanks to the red-hot Seattle Mariners. They’ll try to move back into the division tonight when they take on the New York Mets (60-71) in the first game of a three-game set. Jon Gray (8-7, 3.76 ERA) gets the start for the Rangers, while Tylor Megill (7-7, 5.54 ERA) will get the start for the Mets. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET.

Texas enters as -148 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, while New York is the +124 underdog. The total is set at 9.

Rangers-Mets picks: Monday, August 28

Injury report

Rangers

Out: SP Nathan Eovaldi (right forearm strain), INF Josh Jung (left thumb fracture)

Mets

Out: INF Luis Guillorme (right calf strain), OF Starling Marte (right groin strain)

Starting pitchers

Jon Gray vs. Tylor Megill

Gray took the loss the last time out when he allowed five runs in only 4.2 innings to the D-backs. The righty’s struggled over the last month, as he’s posted a 4.89 ERA over his last seven starts. That seven-start span featured some good (he threw seven scoreless innings against the Giants on Aug. 11) and a lot of bad (he allowed five or more earned runs in three of those starts).

Like Gray, Megill is coming off a loss, as he gave up three earned runs in 4.2 innings against the Braves on Tuesday. Megill’s posted a 6.86 ERA in his four games since being activated from the injured list in a stretch where he recorded just 16 strikeouts in 19.2 innings.

Over/Under pick

I like this over considering both pitchers’ recent track records combined with the ineffectiveness from both bullpens. While this season has been a bit of a struggle for the Mets, their offense has a bit of thump even now, which can lead to this game turning into a track meet very quickly.

Pick: Over 9

Moneyline pick

The Rangers pick up a big win after blowing Sunday’s series finale against the Twins. They have legitimate problems in their bullpen, but their offense should keep them in this game the rest of the way.