Rangers vs. Astros ALCS Game 7 odds and best bet: Take the under on Cristian Javier's K prop

The American League pennant will be crowned tonight when the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros collide for a winner-take-all Game 7 at Minute Maid Park.

The pregame narrative: This AL West battle fittingly comes down to one last game after the two teams finished with identical records in the regular season. Veteran Max Scherzer takes the ball opposite Cristian Javier, who we are fading at home in his second start of the series.

MLB oddsas of 12:23 p.m. ET on 10/23/23.

Rangers vs. Astros odds and best bet

Best Bet: Javier under 4.5 Ks (-136)

This is a low number but we're happy to bite on it with the stakes so high tonight.

With a trip to the World Series on the line, expect both clubs to empty their bullpens and make a number of pitching changes no matter how good any one arm is dealing.

Javier has dealt this postseason, but despite pitching 5.2 innings in Game 3 he still fell below this line. That workload was on the high side for him, too, as it's a number he has only reached three times in 13 starts since August.

We're not expecting the defending champs to allow him to go that long tonight, meaning he should have fewer opportunities to pile up punchouts. And that's worrisome if you're looking at the over on this line based on his struggles generating strikeouts this season.

MLB oddsas of 12:26 p.m. ET on 10/23/23.

Coming into the year, Javier struck out more than 30% of the batters he faced in consecutive seasons. But that number dropped to 23.7% in 2023. He has topped 4.5 Ks in six of his last eight starts but the short leash he's likely to be working on complicates that trend.

Javier only had three Ks in his Game 3 start versus the Rangers, who have not had a tremendous amount of swing and miss in the postseason.

Rangers hitters have a 22.2% K rate in the playoffs, which is 2% lower than the average team this postseason. Astros starters are 3-3 against this number in the ALCS, and six of the 11 starters Texas has faced this postseason have fallen below 4.5 strikeouts.

Javier throws his fastball-slider combination more than 85% of the time and Texas hit sliders better than any team in the majors this season, per FanGraphs' runs above average metric, and was top five against fastballs.

Javier has given us plenty of reason to fade him in a do-or-die game.

Key stat: The Houston righty went under 4.5 Ks the lone time he faced Texas in the regular season.