Astros vs. Rangers prediction: Pick, odds for Game 4 of ALCS in 2023 MLB playoffs

What a difference a change of scenery makes. After dropping the first two games of this ALCS at home, the Houston Astros picked themselves up off the deck in a big way in Game 3, getting to Max Scherzer early and often in an 8-5 win over the Texas Rangers. Now this series is anyone’s game again, with first pitch of a crucial Game 4 set for 8:03 p.m. ET from Globe Life Park in Arlington. Houston will give the ball to righty Jose Urquidy (3-3, 5.29 ERA), while Texas goes with Andrew Heaney (10-6, 4.15) — with Dane Dunning likely to follow in a piggyback role.

The Rangers enter as -120 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Astros at +100. The run total is set at 9.5.

Astros vs. Rangers ALCS Game 4 picks: Thursday, Oct. 19

Injury report

Astros

N/A

Rangers

N/A

Starting pitchers

Jose Urquidy vs. Andrew Heaney

Urquidy spent the bulk of the regular season out of Houston’s rotation due to a combination of injury and ineffectiveness, but with Hunter Brown and J.P. France struggling down the stretch, Dusty Baker has reinserted the righty in October — and it paid off handsomely in the ALDS. Urquidy was great in the deciding game against the Twins, pitching 5.2 innings of two-run ball in the Astros’ Game 4 win. His last start of the regular season was also tremendous, firing six shutout innings with just two hits allowed in a win over the Arizona Diamondbacks on September 29, and it looks like he’s finally getting back to his 2021-22 form after a serious shoulder injury knocked him off track this spring. That injury means that Urquidy is just about the only member of Houston’s pitching staff who hasn’t faced the Rangers so far this season.

Heaney also found himself getting bumped from his team’s rotation down the stretch, but in his case it was a matter of simple math: The deadline acquisitions of Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery meant someone had to be the odd man out. That someone was Heaney, who posted a 4.12 ERA in September in a bulk role. With Scherzer sidelined for the first two rounds of the playoffs, though, the lefty got another chance and made the most of it, getting the ball to start Game 1 of the ALDS against the Orioles and firing 3.2 innings of one-run ball. Dane Dunning came on in relief in that game and also pitched well, so it stands to reason that Bruce Bochy will be looking to execute a similar game plan tonight. Despite the Astros’ success against left-handed pitching this year, Houston had a tougher time with Heaney, who posted a 2.74 ERA in 19.2 innings across four starts against them.

Over/Under pick

Of course, Heaney’s first two starts against the ‘Stros (10 scoreless innings) were far better than his last two (six runs over 9.2 innings), and it seemed like Houston’s lineup finally woke up in Game 3. We saw a total of 13 runs scored on Wednesday night, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Thursday’s total matched or exceeded that number — Heaney is notoriously hard to rely on, capable of giving up crooked numbers when he doesn’t have his command, while the heart of the Rangers lineup figures to be much better than they were against Cristian Javier in Game 3.

Pick: Over 9.5

Moneyline pick

The Astros snatched back all the momentum, and reminded everyone that the American League still runs through the reigning World Series champs. I’m a bit puzzled as to why we’re getting plus odds on Houston here: They’ve won their last four games at Globe Life Park, and I have at least as much faith in Urquidy as I do in the combination of Heaney and Dunning. If the Astros’ top of the order comes to play again, they’re good bets to pull out a win here, and I’ll take the better odds in a game that feels like at worst a coin flip.