Rangers vs. Devils prediction: NHL odds, picks, best bets for Monday
The New Jersey Devils — who desperately need to string a bunch of wins together just to get back into the NHL playoff race — visit the New York Rangers on Monday.
It’s an oversimplification to say New Jersey’s nightmare campaign comes down to just poor goaltending, but it’s certainly the main reason that the Devils have taken such a large step back in 2023-24.
New Jersey ranks 31st in the NHL in save percentage and 27th in goals against average. The three main goaltenders the Devils have used this season (Vitek Vanecek, Akira Schmid and Nico Daws) have combined for -18 Goals Saved Above Expected (per MoneyPuck).
No team can escape that kind of performance from its goaltenders for an entire season.
But it’s not just the goalies that have caused the Devils issues.
Injuries on the blue line have forced rookies Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec into bigger roles than they’re ready for, while solid middle-pair rearguards like John Marino and Jonas Siegenthaler have had to play tougher minutes than you’d like, too.
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Time has likely run out on the Devils to make a playoff push, especially with the team dealing Tyler Toffoli at the deadline, but they did at least attempt to stabilize their goaltending by making a change.
Jake Allen and Kaapo Kahkonen are likely just stopgaps before a bigger move in the offseason, but they’ll both get a chance to make an impact before the season ends.
Kahkonen, who has decent underlying metrics despite playing for the lowly San Jose Sharks, is the likely starter for the Devils on Monday night.
You’d expect the Devils to sell out a bit defensively in order to give their netminder a fighting chance, but that just isn’t in their DNA. New Jersey plays a high-event, fast-paced game and that leaves them susceptible to defensive breakdowns and giving up chances off the rush.
The Rangers don’t have anything to worry about in the goaltending department, but they are due for some negative regression.
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The Blueshirts are conceding 3.13 expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five since the All-Star break (31st in the NHL), but they’re only allowing 1.72 goals per 60 in that span.
Those numbers should meet in the middle at some point.
There’s value on the Over in this contest.
BET: Over 6.5 goals (-104, FanDuel)
