Rangers vs Rays Odds & Predictions for Game 1 & AL Wild Card Series
Back in the postseason for the first time since 2016, the Texas Rangers aren’t expected to make a prolonged appearance, at least not according to oddsmakers. Heading into a best-of-three AL Wild Card series with the Tampa Bay Rays (99-63, 53-28 home), the Texas Rangers (90-72. 40-41 away) have been established as +130 underdogs to advance in the Wild Card odds.
Scheduled for 3:08 pm ET on Tuesday, Oct. 3, the Game 1 odds are ever-so-slightly shorter than the series price, but the difference is negligible.
Rangers vs Rays Game 1 Odds & Series Price
The odds for Game 1 of the best-of-three series are almost identical to the series price: Tampa Bay is a -152 favorite to win Game 1 and -155 to advance past the Rangers. The winner of the best-of-three Wild Card series will advance to play the #1 Baltimore Orioles in the ALDS section of the MLB playoff bracket.
Odds as of Oct. 2 at FanDuel. Claim a FanDuel Sportsbook deposit bonus to bet on the MLB playoffs and be sure to register at new FanDuel Kentucky if you are a KY resident.
The Rangers took the season series from the Rays (4-2) but that was thanks to a three-game sweep at home. The Rays won two of three in Tampa Bay.
Tampa is currently fifth in the World Series odds at +1000 while the Rangers are tied for seventh with the Blue Jays at +1600. They have +475 and +750 AL Pennant odds, respectively.
TEX vs TB Game 1 Starting Pitchers
One of the primary reasons Tampa is a sizable favorite in Game 1, and the series as a whole, is the fact that they can roll out Tyler Glasnow in Game 1, while the Rangers are scrambling to both find a Game 1 starter in Tuesday’s MLB lineups. Texas’ starting rotation has been hammered by injuries. Max Scherzer and (likely) Jon Gray are unavailable due to injury, while both Dane Dunning and Martin Perez pitched on Sunday. That means Tuesday’s start will likely go to Jordan Montgomery, who last started on Sep. 28. But keep in mind that the Rangers have not made any official announcements on their starters for Games 1, 2, or 3.
Jordan Montgomery vs Tyler Glasnow
Acquired in a mid-season trade with St Louis, Montgomery has been solid since joining the Rangers, going 4-2 over 11 starts with a 2.79 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, both significantly better than the numbers he’d posted with the flailing Cardinals. He has limited postseason experience, but what history exists is encouraging: in 6.2 postseason innings pitched, Montgomery has a 1.32 ERA, though his WHIP is 1.65 (five hits and six walks over those 6.2 innings).
Glasnow has a lot more playoff experience, but his numbers are concerning: in 40.2 postseason innings, Glasnow’s ERA is a bloated 5.75 and his FIP isn’t much better (5.25). Oddsmakers aren’t putting a lot of stock in those poor prior results. Tuesday’s MLB player props show Glasnow with a strikeout over/under of 7.5, the highest listed number for the day.
Rangers vs Rays Game 1 Prediction
Despite Glasnow having a spotty playoff track record, the Rays are the play in Game 1 if Montgomery goes opposite. The Tampa lineup has absolutely hammered Montgomery in a pretty decent sample size. Rays batters have recorded a .289 average, .379 OBP, and .879 OPS in 76 total at-bats against the lefty.
The Rangers, on the other hand, are hitting just .189 against Glasnow. While the sample size is much smaller (37 at-bats), unfamiliarity tends to favor the pitcher.
When you add in the fact that Tampa Bay was tied for the best home record in the league during the regular season (53-28), while Texas is the only AL playoff team with a sub-.500 road record (40-41), the -152 price tag on the Tampa moneyline starts to look like a very enticing number.
Rangers vs Rays Game 1 Pick: Rays moneyline (-152)
